Climate action in Egypt: Challenges and opportunities

  • Chapter 3. Climate action in Egypt- Challenges and opportunities
  • Chapter 3. Working Paper

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Hala abou-ali , hala abou-ali professor of economics - cairo university, egypt, vice president - institute of national planning, egypt amira el-ayouti , and amira el-ayouti assistant professor, department of statistics - cairo university, egypt mahmoud mohieldin mahmoud mohieldin professor, department of economics - cairo university, egypt, executive director - international monetary fund, special envoy on financing the 2030 agenda for sustainable development - united nations.

February 16, 2023

This chapter was published in the edited volume “ Keys to Climate Action: How Developing Countries Could Drive Global Success and Local Prosperity .”

Although Egypt accounts for only 0.6 percent of annual global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, it is becoming one of the most heavily affected by extreme weather patterns. In this working paper, Abou-Ali, Elayouty , and Mohieldin examine how well Egypt sets out a pathway for climate ac tion. With the urgent need to translate climate ambitions into action and results, Egypt needs to harness the long-standing experience in the climate-related policy of other countries, including those in the OECD , to seize the opportunities available in the global wave of achieving climate goals. The most salient obstacles to Egypt’s transition can be categorized into three main pillars. The first relates to data systems availability to track and measure progress toward climate goals. The second concerns the implementation capacity for efforts relating to emissions mitigation, adaptation and resilience, and multilateral and multi-disciplinary collaboration. The third impediment is financing, investments, and business action mobilization. Finally, the working paper presents opportunities for progress in critical sectors such as agriculture, power, and transport. Egypt has a unique opportunity to transition to a more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient economy by undertaking urgent action and laying the basics for financial, economic, and social recovery.

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Interview with the authors

What is one main message from your chapter.

Egypt needs to adopt a holistic approach that urgently tackles adaptation needs, fast-tracks mitigation investments, and supports more Egyptians pivot from struggling to succeeding.

What presents the biggest opportunity?

Egypt has a great opportunity to play a key leadership role in promoting development and reinforcing cooperation regarding liquified natural gas and renewable energy-produced green hydrogen supplies between Africa and Europe.

What serves as the biggest challenge?

Egypt is highly vulnerable to heatwaves, sea level rise, increased soil salination, rainfall retention, and desertification. Leading to potentially devastating impacts on the country’s economy, food security as well as people’s health and wellbeing. Hence, it has become critical to identify and evaluate strategies for adaptation.

What gives you the most hope?

Egypt possesses an abundance of land, sunny weather, and high wind speeds, making it a prime location for renewable energy projects. The government can easily harness climate technology innovation through fixing some economic incentives such as offering adoption subsidies and revisiting some of the environmental regulations.

Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Utkarsh Patel

M. Chatib Basri, Teuku Riefky

Climate Change

Development Financing Emerging Markets & Developing Economies

Global Economy and Development

Africa Egypt Middle East & North Africa

Center for Sustainable Development

Paul Muthaura, Oliver Glanvile

July 26, 2024

Homi Kharas, Charlotte Rivard

April 16, 2024

Indermit Gill, M. Ayhan Kose

January 17, 2024

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  • 14 November 2022

‘Actions, not just words’: Egypt’s climate scientists share COP27 hopes

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World leaders, scientists and policymakers are gathered in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, for the 27th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP27) climate summit. So far, the discussions have addressed the urgent need to decarbonize high-emitting industries, adaptation strategies for climate-resilient agriculture and loss and damage compensation .

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doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03691-8

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Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Egypt.

  • Climate Change Overview
  • Country Summary

Climatology

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This page presents Egypt's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. Information should be used to build a strong understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time series. Analysis is available for both annual and seasonal data. Data presentation defaults to national-scale aggregation, however sub-national data aggregations can be accessed by clicking within a country, on a sub-national unit.  Other historical climatologies can be selected from the Time Period dropdown list. 

Observed, historical data is produced by the  Climatic Research Unit (CRU)  of University of East Anglia.  Data  is presented at a 0.5º x 0.5º (50km x 50km) resolution.

Egypt’s climate is dry, hot, and dominated by desert. It has a mild winter season with rain falling along coastal areas, and a hot and dry summer season (May to September). Daytime temperatures vary by season and change with the prevailing winds. In the coastal regions, temperatures range between average winter minimums of 14°C (November to April) and average summer maximums of 30°C (May to October). Temperatures vary widely in the inland desert areas, especially during the summer, where they range from 7°C at night to 43°C during the day. During winter, temperatures in the desert fluctuate less dramatically, but can reach 0°C at night and as high as 18°C during the day. Egypt also experiences hot wind storms, known as “khamsin”, which carry sand and dust and sweep across the northern coast of Africa. These khamsin storms typically occur between March and May and can increase the temperature by 20°C in two hours; and can last for several days.

Egypt is highly arid country and receives very little annual precipitation. The majority of rain falls along the coast, with the highest amounts of rainfall received in the city of Alexandria; approximately 200 mm of precipitation per year. Alexandria has relatively high humidity, however sea breeze modulates moisture. Precipitation decreases southward and Cairo receives a little more than 10 mm of precipitation each year; although it experiences humidity during the summer months. Areas south of Cairo receive only traces of rainfall, yet can suddenly experience extreme precipitation events resulting in flash floods. Sinai receives somewhat more rainfall than other desert areas, and the region is dotted by numerous wells and oases, which support small population centers that were former focal points on trade routes. Water drains toward the Mediterranean Sea from the main plateau and supplies sufficient moisture to permit some agriculture in the coastal area, particularly near Al Arish. The combination of the country’s high evaporation rate and the virtual absence of permanent surface water over large parts of the country result in water as a highly scarce resource. Primary challenges are centered around water resource availability, changing precipitation patterns and increasing population demands.

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Egypt: Climate action can strengthen long-term growth

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, November 9, 2022 – Climate change impacts, including growing pressure on Egypt’s vital water supply, pose increased risk to the country’s long-term growth, says the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) launched today with the Government of Egypt. The report highlights that an ongoing commitment to climate action can transform these risks into opportunities and help Egypt to achieve its climate and development goals together.

The report identifies policy actions and investment opportunities that, if implemented within five years, could make the use and allocation of natural resources more efficient, reduce the impacts of climate change on people and businesses, and enhance Egypt’s competitiveness in global markets.

“ Our CCDRs are shifting the discussion from distant impacts into immediate and actionable recommendations for decision makers today. The recommendations in this report are designed to build the foundation for a low-carbon growth model for Egypt with greater competitiveness in the global scene and reduced vulnerabilities of the people and the economy to climate shocks,” said David Malpass, World Bank Group President .

“Egypt has an ambitious strategy in place to combat the effects of climate change, and this report clearly shows that unlocking private sector investment will be key to reach the country's targets,"  said Makhtar Diop, IFC Managing Director.  "Egypt is a strong partner of IFC in renewable energy and green finance. We remain committed to working together to implement the report’s findings.”

The report highlights the increasing unpredictability of the timing and volume of water available from the Nile River, which supplies more than 97% of Egypt’s freshwater. Even a slight change in rainfall can affect water availability and result in agricultural and employment losses.

Another challenge identified in the report is the high exposure of cities and coastal areas to rising seas, flooding, higher temperatures, air pollution and desertification. The growing urban population (an estimated 41.4 million new urban dwellers are expected over the next three decades) will put additional stress on services and deepen the exposure of assets and people to climate risks.

These climate risks will have a disproportionate impact on Egypt’s most vulnerable, with the number of people living on less than US$4 a day (the expected national poverty line) increasing by more than 9 million (0.8%) by the end of 2030 due to climate impacts. Longer-term, by 2060, the combined impact of climate change on the water supply, agriculture, air quality, and tourism could amount to between 2% and 6% of Egypt’s GDP, the report says.

Finally, the report points out that moving toward a low-emission development pathway can help Egypt to build economic resilience and strengthen its competitiveness. Although Egypt’s share of global emissions is estimated at only 0.6%, one of the lowest globally, emissions and economic growth are tightly interlinked. Three sectors in Egypt (energy, transport, and industry) account for around 80% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.  

“The collaboration with the World Bank in the CCDR would further accelerate the implementation of the Egypt National Climate Change Strategy 2050 and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 2030,” said Dr . Mostafa Madbouly , Egypt’s Prime Minister .

Egypt, which is currently hosting COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, has already made important steps towards addressing climate change, pioneering green bonds in the MENA region, launching its 2050 Climate Change Strategy and providing updated targets for emission reduction by 2030. It has also launched the Country Platform for the Nexus of Water, Food, and Energy (NWFE) Program, designed to leverage multi-stakeholder partnerships to mobilize finance, provide technical assistance and catalyze private investment.

“The issuance of this report is of particular significance as we gather in Sharm El-Sheikh to discuss how to move from climate pledges to implementation ,” said Dr. Rania A. Al-Mashat, Egypt’s Minister of International Cooperation . “ The CCDR outlines national efforts towards a green transition in key sectors such as water and agriculture, energy and industry, and resilient cities and coastal economies, while also identifying policy actions and investment opportunities. Towards that end, our new NWFE program is fully aligned with those objectives.”

“ This report represents a model for further integrating development policies into national plans,” said  Yasmine Fouad, Egypt’s Minister of Environment and COP27 Envoy . “ Through national multidisciplinary, sectoral consultation processes, the report provides prioritized adaptation and mitigation actions and points at the needed enabling environment, providing a road map which can support Egypt in achieving its ambitious climate goals. ”

The report suggests a series of cross-cutting actions to further align Egypt’s development goals with its climate ambition. These include:

  • Valuing natural resources like water and using and allocating them more efficiently. In cities, for example, by reducing current water loss from 29% to 20%, around 2 billion cubic meters of water could be saved annually.
  • Strengthening information systems that share climate and hydrology-related information so that the government, firms and individuals can adapt better and faster to climate shocks and reduce risks. The cost-benefit ratio would be 1:9, meaning for every dollar spent building stronger information systems, nine dollars of potential losses could be averted.
  • Focusing emission reductions on the transport, energy and industry sectors and laying the foundations for increased private sector participation by ensuring full implementation of the new Electricity and Renewable Energy Laws.
  • Unlocking opportunities so that the private sector can more easily invest in areas such as low carbon municipal waste and water management, energy-efficient retrofitting of buildings, and green urban transport.

“We hope this report provides practical, workable solutions that align Egypt’s development goals with their climate ambitions. Boosting Egypt’s resilience to the impact of climate change is a key objective of our new Country Partnership,” said Marina Wes, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen, and Djibouti .

* World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

  • 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
  • CCDR Video link

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Climate Resilience for Energy Transition in Egypt

About this report.

Country summary

  • The increase in Egypt’s average temperatures has accelerated during the past two decades, dramatically raising energy demand for cooling during the summer. Climate projections show that Egypt will experience a higher level of warming than the world average by 2100 and face a significant increase in electricity demand due to more frequent extreme heat events coupled with urbanisation and population growth. Rising ambient temperatures could add stress to power generation from natural gas, solar PV and wind, decreasing generation efficiency. The combination of increasing electricity demand for cooling and decreasing generation efficiency calls for a more resilient energy system.
  • Although Egypt has less than 80 mm of annual rainfall, flood risks have increased in some regions due to the high regional variability in precipitation. This regional variability is projected to increase, especially in a high-emissions scenario, causing different results for two power generation technologies: natural gas power and hydropower. While most natural gas power plants in Egypt are projected to see a moderately drier climate with increasing competition for cooling water, hydropower power plants are expected to experience a slightly wetter climate with an increase in generation capacity factor by 2100.
  • Tackling the adverse effects of climate change has been a priority in national policies. Egypt’s first nationally determined contribution (NDC) identified challenges resulting from climate change and proposed measures such as a climate change impact assessment and capacity building, among others. Egypt’s second NDC suggests improving weather forecasting and early warning systems as well as structural anti-flood interventions. The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) 2050 proposes integrating climate resilience into infrastructure projects and diversifying power generation technologies. The National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (NSDRR) 2030 recognises the energy sector as one of the sectors most affected by disasters and proposes: financing for and investment in disaster risk reduction; creating a disaster risk fund; and enhancing preparedness, response, reconstruction and rehabilitation.
  • For successful delivery of the proposed measures, a robust tracking and monitoring mechanism is required. Despite progress in identifying effective measures for energy sector climate resilience in multiple policies, discussions on the implementation of monitoring are still limited in the energy sector compared to other sectors. Reviewing and tracking progress on the implementation of the measures identified in the NDCs, NCCS and NSDRR would facilitate their fulfilment and help build stronger actions for resilience. In addition, promoting climate-risk informed decision making is also critical to ensure that energy transitions are climate resilient. Given that Egypt is projected to face a notable increase in multiple climate hazards by the end of this century, decisions on future energy systems need to be informed by accurate information on climate risks and impacts.

Climate hazard assessment

Level of floods, droughts and tropical cyclones in egypt, 2000-2020, level of warming in egypt, 2000-2020.

Temperature

Between 1901 and 2013 temperatures in Egypt increased by an average of 0.1°C per decade . The rate accelerated between 2000 and 2020 with a temperature increase averaging 0.38°C per decade, which was higher than the world average (0.31°C per decade). As a result, the number of cooling degree days (CDDs) increased dramatically – by around 300 during 2000-2020 – while winter heating needs declined by over 50 heating degree days (HDDs) in the same period. UNEP’s recent study shows that 50% of all electricity is already being consumed for air conditioning during the peak summer months in Cairo.

Climate projections show that Egypt will continue to experience a higher level of warming than the world average. 1 Compared with the pre-industrial period, temperatures in 2081-2100 could be around 2.5°C higher in a low-emissions scenario 2 and around 6°C in a high-emissions scenario. 3 The warming, coupled with urbanisation and population growth, is expected to trigger a significant increase in extreme heat events and electricity demand for cooling.

Temperature in Egypt, 2000-2020

Cooling degree days in egypt, 2000-2020, heating degree days in egypt, 2000-2020.

Rising temperatures could add stress to Egypt’s power generation. Natural gas power plants, which account for around three-quarters of the country’s electricity supply, can be negatively affected by a warmer climate. Climate projections show that two-thirds of Egypt’s natural gas power plants are projected to see an increase of over 2°C in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900 under a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C) 2 and an increase of over 5°C in a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C). 3 Studies show that increased ambient temperatures could lead to a decrease in air mass flow entering the gas turbine compressor and consequently lower the performance of natural gas power plants.

Gas power plants in Egypt exposed to a hotter climate by climate scenario, 2021-2100

The generation efficiency of solar PV and wind power plants, which are expected to grow rapidly in Egypt’s power mix, could also degrade in a warmer climate, particularly during heatwaves. Solar PV and wind power plants that are generally designed for conditions of around 25°C could become less efficient in higher temperatures, such as 35°C. Climate projections show that over 80% of existing and planned solar PV capacity would experience over 20 more days per year with a maximum temperature above 35°C under a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C) 2 and over 60 days under a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C) 3 in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900. This is significantly higher than the world average, where less than 40% of solar PV capacity would be exposed to the same level (i.e. an increase of more than 60 days under a high-emissions scenario).

Wind power plants’ level of exposure to a maximum temperature above 35°C is even higher: almost 100% of existing capacity would see an increase of over 20 days under a low-emissions scenario, and over 80 days under a high-emissions scenario. The exposure level of wind power plants to warming is particularly notable given that only 7% of wind power capacity around the world would reach that exposure level (i.e. an increase of more than 80 days with a maximum temperature above 35°C), even under a high-emissions scenario.

Wind power plants in Egypt exposed to a hotter climate by climate scenario, 2021-2100

Solar pv in egypt exposed to a hotter climate by climate scenario, 2021-2100.

The combination of increasing electricity consumption for cooling and decreasing generation efficiency from gas, solar and wind power plants could add strain to Egypt’s electricity systems. Climate resilience measures could help its electricity systems cope better with the adverse impacts of rising temperatures and heatwaves; possible examples include incorporating climate impact assessment into energy planning, additional cooling systems for thermal power plants, innovative design to cope with higher temperatures, improved energy efficiency and behavioural change.

Precipitation

Climate projections show a potential decrease in mean precipitation in northern Egypt while the trend is still uncertain in the rest of the country. Despite the uncertainty, most climate models show that a higher level of global warming would lead to a higher level of variability in precipitation and water flow, bringing higher risk of floods. 

Egypt has annual average rainfall of less than 80 mm , but most precipitation falls along the north coast (Mediterranean) and the Red Sea. While most parts of Egypt have remained dry, the severity and frequency of flash flooding in some regions have increased in recent years. For instance, heavy rainfall in April 2018 flooded Greater Cairo causing power outages for over 20 hours. Similarly, in March 2020 heavy rains combined with strong winds hit several cities in north-eastern Egypt, damaging transformers, transmission lines and towers. Financial losses in the electricity sector due to this event exceeded USD 13 million . The INFORM Climate Index assessed level of floods in Egypt is significantly higher than the world average, although the average risk of flooding shown in the index can mask regional differences across Egypt. Due to the size of its territory, precipitation patterns in Egypt record high variability depending on location.

Regional variability in future precipitation would have different impacts on two power generation technologies : natural gas power and hydropower, which accounted for 84% and 8% of total electricity generation respectively in 2020. While most natural gas power plants in Egypt are projected to see a slightly or moderately drier climate in the future, hydropower power plants are expected to experience a slightly wetter climate by 2100.

Climate projections show that around one-third of existing natural gas power plants would be exposed to an increase in consecutive dry days of over 10 in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900 in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C) 2 and over 20 in a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C). 3 This level of exposure is notably higher than the global average : only 5% of gas power plants globally would be exposed to an increase of over 10 in 2080-2100 in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C), and 8% would see an increase of over 20 in a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C).

The increasing number of consecutive dry days and the overall shift to a drier climate would become a concern for natural gas power plants. Currently, a majority of gas power plants in Egypt continue to rely on freshwater for cooling. A drier climate combined with population growth, economic development and geopolitical factors adds stress to gas power plants by increasing competition for freshwater . To tackle this issue, Egypt’s power sector is already exploring more water-efficient options or alternative water sources for cooling its gas power plants. The three most recently opened natural gas power plants, completed in 2018, are all designed to minimise the use of fresh water. The 4.8 GW Beni Suef power plant introduced a closed-loop cooling tower system that reuses cooling water. The 4.8 GW New Capital power plant adopted an air-cooling system with 12 giant fans, used for the first time in Egypt. The 4.8GW El Burullus power plant included wet cooling towers, which operate using water from the Mediterranean Sea instead of freshwater.

Gas power plants in Egypt exposed to a drier climate, by climate scenario

Gas power plants in egypt exposed to a wetter or drier climate by climate scenario, 2021-2100.

While natural gas power plants are projected to see a slightly or moderately drier climate, most hydropower plants in Egypt are likely to experience a wetter climate with increasing precipitation and water flow. As a result, Egypt is projected to see a higher hydropower generation capacity factor. Compared with the hydropower generation capacity factor of 2010-2019, that of 2060-2099 is projected to increase by 2.4% under a low greenhouse gas concentration scenario 4 and by 7.5% under a higher emissions scenario. 5

Changes and variability in hydropower capacity factors in Egypt by climate scenario, 2020-2099

However, a wetter climate in areas with hydropower plants does not always bring positive impacts. The projected increase in heavy rainfall and pluvial floods could physically damage hydropower plants with sediment and floating debris. In a high-emissions scenario, the majority of Egypt’s hydropower plants are likely to be exposed to at least a 40% increase in their one-day maximum precipitation in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900. This level of exposure in Egypt is significantly higher than the world average, where only around 10% of hydropower plants would experience such level of increase in their one-day maximum precipitation. 

Hydropower plants in Egypt exposed to a wetter climate by climate scenario and precipitation index, 2021-2100

Hydropower plants in egypt exposed to a wetter climate by climate scenario, 2021-2100.

Sea level rise

More than 30% of the Nile delta is a lowland area (less than 2 metres above sea level) and faces severe risk of hazards such as coastal erosion, storm surge and flooding. Climate projections show that the sea level around the Mediterranean could rise by 0.4 metres in a low-emissions scenario 2 and 0.7 metres in a high-emissions scenario 3 in 2081-2100 compared with the 1995-2014 period. Estimates in Egypt’s first updated NDC show that sea level rise may reach 1 metre in some coastal areas of Egypt. In this case, several places in the Nile Delta, the northern coast and Sinai could be submerged by 2100.

This is particularly alarming since 95% of Egypt’s population lives in the Nile Valley and Delta and many energy infrastructure assets are located along the coast and in the Nile Delta. Respectively, 39% and 7% of installed gas and oil power plant capacity is located in areas below 10 metres above sea level. Most gas-fired power plants located in low-elevation areas (below 10 metres above sea level) are projected to be exposed to over 0.4 metres of sea level rise in a low-emissions scenario, and over 0.6 metres of sea level rise in a high-emissions scenario in 2081-2100.

Oil refineries in coastal areas are also exposed to sea level rise and associated impacts such as storm surge and flooding. Around 50% of refineries in Egypt are located in low-elevation areas, which is higher than the world average (34%). Among the refineries in low-elevation areas, almost 70% are projected to be exposed to over 0.4 metres of sea level rise in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C) 2 in 2081-2100. In the high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C), 3 all of the refineries in low-elevation areas would be subject to over 0.6 metres of sea level rise.

Low-elevation refineries capacity exposed to sea-level rise by climate scenario, relative to 1995-2014

Scientific assessments of sea level rise and its physical impacts on power plants and refineries can guide measures to cope with the projected sea level rise. Egypt has already conducted a scoping study, Integrated Coastal Management in the Northern Coast of Egypt , and identified areas exposed to the physical impacts of coastal erosion, coastal flooding and other hazards under a high-emissions scenario. 6 Based on the results of the scoping study, further assessments of risks to power plants and refineries will help energy companies and investors incorporate sea level rise risks into their plans for future operation. In addition, as Egypt’s NDC proposes, the development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan and implementation of coastal protection measures (e.g. maritime walls, submersible barriers, soil fixation, artificial nourishment with sand, anti-flood structures and nature-based solutions) could contribute to enhancement of overall resilience against sea level rise.

Policy readiness for climate resilience

Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change have become a priority in the government’s national policies and strategies over the past decade. The National Climate Change Council (NCCC) was founded in 2015 as the national authority in Egypt concerned with climate change and a focal point for the UNFCCC. The same year, Egypt’s first NDC was released, which covers the energy sector not only in terms of mitigation but also in the context of adaptation action packages. The document identifies challenges such as the negative impacts of rising temperatures on the efficiency of conventional power plants and photovoltaic cells; the risk of changing rainfall rates on hydropower generation; and the potential impact of sea level rise on power plants and networks located along the coasts. It proposed measures for adaptation, including an assessment of climate change impacts with the aim of finding safe locations for the construction of future power plants, together with building institutional and technical capacity and supporting research and technological development to enhance the climate resilience of the power sector.

Egypt updated its NDC in June 2022, including a review of the implementation of adaptation measures 7 proposed in the first NDC . The updated NDC suggests additional adaptation actions in five sectors: water resources and irrigation; agriculture; coastal zones; urban development; and tourism. Although the climate resilience of the energy sector is not specifically addressed in the updated NDC, the cross-cutting measures (e.g. the improvement of weather forecasting and early warning systems to minimise the impacts of extreme weather events; structural anti-flood interventions) would contribute to the general enhancement of adaptation ability and resilience.

Egypt has focused on climate change adaptation and resilience in many other national policies, such as the Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030 launched in 2016, the National Climate Change Strategy 2050 published in 2022, and the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2030 published in 2011 and updated in 2017.

The Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030 (SDS) represents the national long-term political, economic and social vision for 2030. In this strategy, energy and the environment are identified as two of the ten key pillars. Under the energy pillar, energy security and carbon emissions reduction are emphasised, while the environmental pillar focuses on water management and coastal protection.

The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) 2050 was developed at the request of the NCCC, with the objective of creating a reference point for integrating the climate change dimension into general planning across all sectors in a way that supports the achievement of the country’s desired economic and development goals with a low-emissions approach. In order to enhance Egypt’s adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change and to alleviate the associated negative impacts, the NCCS proposes to enhance climate change action governance, preserve and expand green spaces, consider gender differences in adaptation programmes, enable policies and tools such as climate-risk insurance and green bonds, and integrate climate adaptation and resilience into infrastructure projects, minimising loss and damage to the country’s assets and ecosystems.

In the NCCS, the energy sector is seen as central to achieving sustainable economic growth and low-emission development in the country. It aims to increase the share of all renewable and alternative energy sources in the energy mix. The government has set a target for renewable energy to meet 42% of total electricity production by 2035, confirmed in both the NCCS and Egypt’s updated NDC.

Although the climate resilience of the energy sector is not the exact target of such measures, the planned diversification of power generation technologies could also improve climate resilience by reducing dependency on a single energy source. Other measures proposed in the NCCS (e.g. promoting small-scale decentralised systems, energy storage technologies such as batteries, and expanding interconnections) would also have positive effects by enhancing geographical diversification and improving energy sector climate resilience.

Besides climate and energy policies, climate resilience has been addressed in the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (NSDRR) 2030 8 with the objective of substantially reducing damage to critical infrastructure and disruption to basic services due to different types of disasters, including those related to climate change. The energy sector is presented as one of the most affected sectors, together with the environment, agriculture, water, housing and infrastructure. As one of the measures to enhance overall resilience, financing and investment in disaster risk reduction are suggested. Investment in renewable energy sources, the creation of a disaster risk fund, the incorporation of climate adaptation into national strategies and plans, and the implementation of disaster risk resilience projects are identified as indicators. In addition, enhancing preparedness, response, reconstruction and rehabilitation are also proposed.

For successful implementation of the proposed measures for energy sector climate resilience, a robust mechanism to track and monitor progress is essential. Despite the achievements made in identifying effective measures for climate resilience, discussions on monitoring implementation are still underdeveloped, especially for the energy sector adaptation and resilience. For instance, progress in the energy sector’s adaptation measures was rarely discussed when the second NDC reviewed the implementation of adaptation measures in other sectors (e.g. food security, urban areas and coastal zone management). Reviewing and tracking progress of the identified adaptation measures of the NDCs, NCCS and NSDRR would contribute to successful implementation and help the energy sector improve its resilience measures further. In particular, monitoring achievements in climate change impact assessments, diversification of energy technologies, financing and investment in climate resilience, and institutional and technical capacity building, could provide a useful snapshot of the current status and develop further actions to fill existing gaps.

Making the energy sector decision-making process climate-risk informed will be also critical for climate change adaptation. Egypt is projected to experience a higher increase in annual mean temperature and extreme heat events than the world average, while facing an increasing variability in precipitation and a sea level rise. Climate projections show that certain locations can be more exposed to climate hazards and some energy technologies tend to be more vulnerable to such hazards. To minimise adverse impacts of climate change on energy security, decision makers in the energy sector need to consider climate risks when they determine the energy mix, locations, generation and cooling technologies, and strategies for operation and maintenance.

This work was supported by the  Clean Energy Transitions Programme , the IEA’s flagship initiative to transform the world’s energy system to achieve a secure and sustainable future for all. In particular, this publication was produced with the financial assistance of the Government of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 

The IPCC climate scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. SSP = Shared Socioeconomic Pathway.

Based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. RCPs are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Based on the RCP 6.0 scenario.

Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario.

The review shows the implementation of several sectoral adaptation projects, mainly on food security, urban areas and coastal zone management, without mentioning the energy sector.

This is an updated version of the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction launched in 2011, where the energy sector is mainly discussed in terms of buildings energy efficiency and energy security.

Reference 1

Reference 2, reference 3, reference 4, reference 5, reference 6, reference 7, reference 8, cite report.

IEA (2023), Climate Resilience for Energy Transition in Egypt , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-resilience-for-energy-transition-in-egypt, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Forever changes: climate lessons from ancient egypt.

View of the silo-courtyard used for centralized grain storage at the ancient city of Tell Edfu in southern Egypt, ca. 1600 BCE

View of the silo-courtyard used for centralized grain storage at the ancient city of Tell Edfu in southern Egypt, ca. 1600 BCE (Photo by G. Marouard, Tell Edfu Project)

With record-breaking heat waves gripping many regions of the U.S. and unprecedented floods wreaking havoc from China to Germany, the existential threat of climate change has once again risen to the forefront of public discourse.

But this is not the first time that extreme weather events have posed a challenge for humankind. In fact, the case of ancient Egypt offers useful insights into human responses to environmental stress, says Nadine Moeller , professor of Near Eastern languages and civilizations, and Joseph Manning , professor of history and classics.

As humans reevaluate how to live in the face of a changing climate, they say, ancient Egypt offers some cautionary tales.

“ Throughout human history, climate and climate change is certainly something that we worried about as a stressor, especially in societies that are already rather vulnerable,” said Manning. “And we should really be paying attention right now.”

For centuries, annual summer flooding of the Nile was instrumental for agricultural production in ancient Egypt, said Moeller. Although the flood cycles naturally varied, archaeological evidence suggests that weather patterns became more erratic during certain critical periods. For instance, floods wouldn’t occur for many years at a time and droughts would ensue.

Although these weather events were not the consequence of human activities — unlike many of the episodes now unfolding worldwide, according to scientists — they were linked to a changing climate, researchers say.

In her work, Moeller examines climate history related to the so-called 4.2 ka BP event, a period of arid weather globally which started in approximately 2200 BCE. This roughly coincided with the collapse of Egypt’s Old Kingdom, and continued for several centuries into the First Intermediate Period. In Egypt, this climate event meant lower Nile River levels and drier conditions over time, which then likely induced lower crop yields, she said.

“ Archaeological analysis of sediment deposits provides strong evidence that there were dryer conditions and more erosion,” said Moeller. “Textual sources like autobiographies inscribed in tombs from this era contain more mentions of famine, too.” These historical accounts aren't always entirely reliable; if a local ruler’s inscription, say, boasts about being able to feed his people despite a bad famine, it could just be a bit of propaganda. However, Moeller said, there are undeniably more inscriptions than previous periods talking about food shortages.

Fast forward to Egypt under the Ptolemaic dynasties (305-30 BCE), which is Manning’s area of expertise. As part of the Yale Nile Initiative , a four-year project examining the link between the hydrological cycle and human society in ancient Egypt, Manning focuses on the climate effects of massive volcanic eruptions on annual Nile floods during the Ptolemaic Kingdom. These eruptions may have shifted the patterns of the annual African monsoon, suppressing Nile floods and disrupting agricultural yields. This, in turn, may have contributed to growing social unrest and political turmoil that ultimately led to the end of the Ptolemaic Kingdom.

To what extent, then, can we say that a changing climate caused the collapse of otherwise prosperous Egyptian powers?

In the case of the Old Kingdom, climate change was just one factor that caused its ultimate downfall, Moeller said. Likewise, Manning said, environmental change was one of several stressors that, when combined together, contributed to large-scale, complex societal and political change during the Ptolemaic period.

“ Societies don’t just stick together naturally,” Manning said. “The big lesson of history is that societies do fall apart due to a variety of compounding factors. Social inequality and significant environmental change are two big ones.”

Climate stress, including the decline in Nile flooding, caused significant misery for the ancient Egyptians. But the ways that the society managed to stay afloat and cope with the effects of uncontrollable environmental change offer important lessons, the researchers said. “Ancient societies were extremely resilient,” Moeller said. “They would find solutions to get by, to survive. Migration was the most extreme one. There was also increased localized governance in response to the effects of climate change.”

Indeed, towns seem to have expanded during the time of famine in the Old Kingdom — perhaps, as Moeller noted, because more people moved there from the countryside in order to have greater access to supplies and support.

“ Cooperation is really key,” Manning added. “What kept the Old Kingdom together for many centuries was a fairly stable political equilibrium and economy.”

Since climate change related to Nile failures disrupted agricultural yield, adaptation naturally involved rethinking food systems. For instance, Moeller and Manning both emphasized the development of long-term grain storage facilities as a key adaptive response to climate stress. “For towns, that included building their own grain reserve so that they could then distribute grain to the inhabitants,” said Moeller.

“ Changing subsistence patterns was also big,” Moeller added. She is currently investigating how diets might have changed during climate-induced food shortages — people switching to different foods or increasing intake of certain foods based on availability — in her archaeological excavations at the ancient Egyptian city of Tell Edfu, located on the West Bank of the Nile.

There is much about resilience to be learned from the ancient Egyptians, Moeller said.

 “I think what makes today different from what we see with ancient societies is that the latter tried to find solutions, and it was at a scale where people could , through adaptation, find solutions,” she said. “Climate change was uncontrollable for ancient societies, but for us — since we know the causes of climate change — there’s certain actions we can take, such as lowering carbon emissions.”

“ We can’t go on as we’ve always been going on,” Moeller added. “Societal change needs to happen.”

Climate change today, Moeller and Manning emphasized, is unprecedented in its rate of change. This suggests that it is largely human-made, a key difference from the natural processes that characterized climate change in antiquity. In addition, the human population during antiquity was also much smaller than it is in today’s world, as the planet is approaching carrying capacity.

But what both the ancient and contemporary cases have in common is the complexity of the effects of climate change and the response required by human society. Different areas of ancient Egypt faced different forms of climate challenges based on how they experienced the Nile floods. Responses to environmental stressors were varied and had far-reaching ripple effects.

“ That’s why studying ancient climatic change is relevant for understanding what’s happening in our world now,” said Manning. “You can look at droughts in Old Kingdom Egypt and, say, the wildfires in modern California. Humans need water — if you don’t have water, you move. And that migration can lead to a lot of other changes.”

Studying climate history in ancient Egypt offers insight into what humans can do with often dramatic events like drought or temperature changes, the researchers said. Moral questions then arise.

“ How will we respond around things like migration from Africa or Central America into the U.S. and Europe? How do we adjust expectations around things like economic growth?” said Manning. “What, as a society altogether, do we give up for the good of this planet?”

  • Joseph Manning wins major NSF grant to study climate change, human history link
  • Yale historian’s research, teaching gives students new window to an ancient world
  • Study reshapes understanding of climate change’s impact on early societies

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy

February 28, 2013.

This study, conducted in collaboration with the Egyptian government, used estimates of change in water supplies, coastal inundation, and crop yields previously published by Egyptian researchers to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on Egypt’s agriculture economy in 2030 and 2060. In addition, the value of property that could be damaged due to sea level rise (SLR), the increase in the number of deaths and valuation of such losses from climate changeinduced decreases in air quality and increases in heat stress, and losses to tourism from increased heat and loss of coral reefs were estimated.

  • Agricultural production is estimated to decrease by 8 to 47% by 2060, with reductions in agriculture-related employment of up to 39%, although in one scenario employment increases by 3% and food prices increase by 16 to 68%.
  • Welfare losses in agriculture in 2060 are estimated to range from 40 to 234 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP). The value of property in the Nile River Delta threatened by SLR could be 7 to 16 billion EGP.
  • Increased particulate matter concentrations and heat stress could result in approximately 2,000 to 5,000 more deaths per year, with an equivalent loss of 20 to 48 billion EGP per year.

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Climate Response

This is the decisive decade for our planet and our future. Egypt is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, including water scarcity, drought, extreme heat, rising sea levels, and food insecurity. The U.S. Government is committed to working with the Government of Egypt (GoE) and the private sector to respond to the climate crisis.

In support of Egypt’s transition towards a green economy, USAID is helping Egypt adapt to the impacts of climate change, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support low - emissions development, build the capacity of future climate leaders, and access financing to implement climate solutions. Our work today builds on decades of partnership between Egypt and the United States to protect Egypt’s natural resources and empower local communities, especially youth, with the skills, knowledge, and opportunities to lead on climate action.

IMPACT & PROGRAMMING

Agriculture.

Some of the biggest challenges faced by smallholder farmers result from climate change including  temperature extremes, storms, winds, water availability, and pests—all of which negatively impact crop quality and quantity. USAID supports smallholder farmers in Upper Egypt and the Delta with both production and post-harvest technical assistance to grow marketable crops for export and address water security challenges. USAID also assists smallholder farmers to implement climate-smart practices—like transferring farm waste into compost instead of traditional burning practices that emit CO 2 and other harmful emissions. Additionally, USAID promotes low-cost solutions that increase crop resistance to climate related stresses, improve water use efficiency by 30 percent, and reduce fossil fuel consumption used for pumping groundwater. USAID’s programs increase awareness of the gender-specific impacts of climate change and food insecurity on rural women and improve the nutrition knowledge and feeding habits of female farmers, which boosts the physical well-being of women and children. 

Water—a precious resource in Egypt—is becoming increasingly scarce due to climate change. Since the 1970s, USAID has invested more than $3.5 billion to bring clean water and sanitation services to the homes of over 25 million Egyptians, improving health outcomes and reducing child mortality by 80 percent. USAID investments are strengthening Egypt’s water utilities to improve their operational performance and financial sustainability to deliver sustainable quality services to Egyptians across the country. As a result, water utilities have increased their operational efficiency, reduced their water losses by 8 percent, and optimized their power usage. USAID supports utility companies to build institutional resilience. USAID also informs water policy; expands and modernizes water sector degree programs at Egyptian universities; and funds innovative research conducted by Egyptian professors to develop solutions for issues like irrigation, industrial water use, desalination, and urban water planning.

Renewable Energy 

USAID supports Egypt’s goal to achieve 42 percent renewable energy capacity by 2030 through development of a regulatory and financial environment conducive to clean energy investments. USAID partnered with the Government of Egypt and private businesses to develop the New and Renewable Energy Diploma Program, through which technical school students learn the technical skills needed to work in the lucrative and growing renewable energy industry. In higher education, USAID informs energy policy formation, promotes efficient energy use, improves the quality of energy curricula, introduces new courses to undergraduate and graduate fields of study related to energy, and funds innovative applied research solutions to climate mitigation issues. Beyond education, USAID strengthens commercial relationships within the renewable energy value chain. USAID supports the creation of renewable energy-focused accelerators and business development services centers. To provide equitable access to clean energy, USAID facilitates loans to small-scale farmers to utilize solar panels instead of diesel fuel to power irrigation. In FY 2022, USAID committed $10 million to the Energy Pillar of Egypt’s Nexus for Water, Food, and Energy Initiative (NWFE). NWFE, which means “we deliver on our promise” in Arabic, is a GOE-led initiative that supports Egypt’s goal to install 10 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by providing technical assistance on grid integration and modernization, energy efficiency, and creating an enabling environment to support the deployment of large-scale renewable energy capacity.

Across all levels of the education system, USAID partners with the GOE and private businesses to empower youth with skills, knowledge, and opportunities to overcome climate challenges and lead future climate action. USAID partnered with the private sector and GOE to establish 10 International Applied Technology Schools that include environmental curricula and link secondary students with green jobs. In Beni Suef, USAID recently expanded a literacy program in community schools that will provide climate change education and awareness for girls and their families. Through USAID’s long-standing science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) programming, students at Egypt’s 19 STEM high schools learn about environmental protection and sustainability and access cutting-edge USAID-funded fabrication laboratories to design projects that address Egypt’s climate challenges. Each year, USAID funds Egypt’s top STEM students to compete in the International Science and Engineering Fair where they unveil their innovative climate solutions to a global audience. To further strengthen learning, USAID established STEM teacher undergraduate degree programs focused on university-level climate change and environmental sustainability courses to convey the skills needed to become effective STEM and climate teachers. USAID provides university scholarships to 727 of Egypt’s most talented youth to obtain energy, water, and agriculture degrees. USAID is also building the capacity of mid-career government officials to address national climate priorities by awarding over 100 scholarships for leadership and professional training and study abroad opportunities. USAID-funded education programs strengthen Egypt’s scientific and technological capabilities through high-impact scientific research on climate resilience, collaboration between public and private sector institutions, and innovative training for the next generation of scientists and entrepreneurs. USAID and the GOE also jointly fund 12 research projects with one US and one Egyptian scientist as co-leads, to research the intersections between climate and water, energy, health, and agriculture. 

Policy and Governance

USAID partners with the GOE to promote inclusive development through effective public institutions, with climate change as an area of particularly deep partnership. To bolster Egypt’s National Climate Change Strategy 2050, USAID is collaborating with the GOE to draft a plan for successful implementation of the strategy’s climate governance objective. USAID provided support to the GOE to guide public investment decisions and doubled the percentage of green public investments between 2021 and 2022. USAID also works with key government counterparts to analyze fiscal risks, explore alternative financing mechanisms that leverage public and private money for climate investments, and develop procedures to integrate climate change mitigation into all public investment projects. This work is complemented by USAID technical assistance programs supporting Egyptian startups and micro, small, and medium enterprises—especially those owned by women and youth—and helping them increase their resilience to climate change impacts. In the lead up to COP 27, USAID partnered with the GOE to empower future climate leaders by encouraging  university students’ involvement in climate action through the Youth Model COP and supporting the Youth Climate Change Caravan, which traveled to each governorate to raise awareness of climate change among young Egyptians. In addition, USAID supports Egypt's national voluntary family planning program, which is a GOE priority, and promotes individual, household, and community resilience to adapt to environmental shocks and stresses.

Coastal Communities

USAID’s decades-long partnership with the GOE  has ensured ongoing protection and long-term strategies to preserve the natural environment and helped local communities build resilience to  climate change impacts. USAID has invested nearly $200 million in environmental education and awareness, conservation of wildlife reserves, eco-friendly tourism, and continuous partnership with the private sector and local organizations. USAID programs supported conservation efforts on 14 islands, funded scholarships for underprivileged students to study ecotourism, constructed solid waste and recycling systems, and established the Wadi El Gemal National Park along the Southern Red Sea coast. USAID works with fishing communities in North Sinai to promote sustainable fishing practices, minimize marine degradation, protect fish stocks, and use waste from fishing activities to fertilize medicinal herbs growing locally. USAID is also establishing water reservoirs to harvest rainwater for irrigation and domestic purposes in North Sinai. In 2022, USAID signed a $15 million Climate Change Agreement with Egypt and launched the Egyptian Red Sea Initiative. In partnership with the United Nation Development Programme and the Global Fund for Coral Reefs, this initiative aims to protect the Red Sea’s coral reefs and coastal ecosystem against the impacts of climate change and human activity, empower Red Sea communities to lead on climate action, and establish a finance mechanism that supports reef-positive businesses to build resilience against climate change, reduce emissions, and create good jobs. The Egyptian Red Sea Initiative marks a new milestone in the U.S. and Egypt’s development partnership and will play a crucial role in creating programming that combats the climate crisis.

Egypt Climate Response

COP27 Announcements & Press Releases:

United states announces scholarship program to empower women and combat climate change in egypt.

  • November 14, 2022

United States Announces $4 Million In Research Grants Under U.S.-Egypt Science And Technology Joint Fund

United states and egypt announce winners of global climate competition to promote green start-ups and entrepreneurs.

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The United States Announces $4 Million In Research Grants Under The Center Of Excellence For Energy

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U.S. Government Provides $15 Million to Launch Red Sea Initiative

  • November 8, 2022

Climate Champion and USAID Scholar Nada

Body USAID empowers future climate leaders by providing scholarships for Egypt’s smartest and most talented students to obtain degrees in climate-related fields of study like energy, water, and agriculture.

Protecting Red Sea Coastal Ecosystem

Sustainable tourism contributes to #ClimateAction! How? Watch Dr.

Renewable Energy

Body Immediate #ClimateAction needs youth leadership! Check out this video of Benban Technical School alum, Abdel Kareem, who is working on developing a water pumping system using solar panels.

Women Entrepreneurs Climate Adaptation

Body In Egypt and around the world, USAID empowers women entrepreneurs by providing business and skills training, ensuring they can better manage impacts from a changing climate and secure their futures.

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