world bank policy research paper

World Bank Policy Research Working Papers

This collection is a set of reproducibility packages associated with papers published in the World Bank’s Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) series. Each package provides the necessary scripts and documentation to reproduce the exact analytical outputs presented in the Working Paper. All packages are verified prior to publication. Details on the reproducibility verification process are available here . Questions about the contents of specific packages should be directed to the authors. General questions should be directed to [email protected].

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• Research & Outlook

Prospects Group Working Papers

Prospect Group Policy Research Working Papers Working papers by author  | Policy Research Notes

Rate Cycles by Jongrim Ha, Kristin J. Forbes, and Ayhan Kose

What Explains Global Inflation   by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday

Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Mathilde Lebrand, Garima Vasishtha, and Hakan Yilmazkuday 

Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy by Jongrim Ha, Haiqin, and John Rogers

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite   by Francisco Arroyo-Marioli, Jeetendra Khadan, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Takefumi Yamazaki

Measuring Total Carbon Pricing by Paolo Agnolucci, Carolyn Fischer, Dirk Heine, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Joseph Pryor, Kathleen Patroni, and Stéphane Hallegatte 

Trade Elasticities in Aggregate Models : Estimates for 191 Countries   by Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, and Sherman Robinson

International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax   by Michael Keen, Li Liu, and Hayley Pallan

Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does It Pour and Why?   by Francisco Arroyo Marioli and Carlos A. Vegh

Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia?   by Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lazar Milivojevic, and Victor Mylonas

The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth by Agustín Bénétrix, Hayley Pallan, and Ugo Panizza

Commodity Price Cycles: Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers by Alain Kabundi and Hamza Zahid

Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution   by Hamza Zahid

Fiscal Policy Volatility and Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies   by Francisco Arroyo Marioli, Antonio Fatás, and Garima Vasishtha

The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies   by Kersten Stamm and Dana Vorisek

Investment in Emerging Market and Developing Economy Regions: Trends, Prospects, and Policy Options by Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, and Collette Wheeler 

The Past and Future of Regional Potential Growth: Hopes, Fears, and Realities by Sergiy Kasyanenko, Philip Kenworthy, Sinem Kilic Celik, Franz Ulrich Ruch, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, and Collette Wheeler 

Potential Growth: A Global Database by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and F. Ulrich Ruch

Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

Trade as an Engine of Growth: Sputtering but Fixable by Franziska Ohnsorge and Lucia Quaglietti 

Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices? by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Hakan Yilmazkuday 

How Do Rising U.S. Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends. by Carlos Arteta, Steven Kamin, and Franz Ulrich Ruch

From Financial Development to Informality: A Causal Link   by Salvatore Capasso, Franziska L. Ohnsorge, Shu Yu

Global Job Quality: Evidence from Wage Employment across Developing Countries   by Shoghik Hovhannisyan, Veronica Montalva-Talledo, Tyler Remick, Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, and Kersten Stamm 

Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy by Justin Damien Guénette, Philip Kenworthy, and Collette Wheeler

Demand and Supply Shocks: Evidence from Corporate Earning Calls   by Franz Ulrich Ruch and Temel Taskin

What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami by M. Ayhan Kose, Peter Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing? by Ergys Islamaj and M. Ayhan Kose

Sectoral Value Added — Electricity Elasticities across Countries   by Shoghik Hovhannisyan and Kersten Stamm

Commodity Price Shocks: Order within Chaos   bu John Baffes and Alain Ntumba

Understanding FDI Spillovers in the Presence of GVCs   by Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Wei Xiang, Fahad Khan   

A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

The Aftermath of Debt Surges by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff

One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies by Franz Ulrich Ruch

Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia During the COVID-19 Recession by Ergys Islamaj, Franz Ulrich Ruch, and Eka Vashakmadze

Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic by Justin-Damien Guenette and Takefumi Yamazaki

The Technology-Employment Trade-Off: Automation, Industry, and Income Effects by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Technology and Demand Drivers of Productivity Dynamics in Developed and Emerging Market Economies by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity by Alistair Dieppe, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Cedric Okou

Productivity Convergence: Is Anyone Catching Up? by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Cedric Okou

Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets by Alain Ntumba Kabundi and Franziska Ohnsorge

Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic   by Collette Mari Wheeler, John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Peter S. Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge 

A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies by Wee Chian Koh and Shu Yu

A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic Developments by Wee Chian Koh and Shu Yu

Tax Competition: Is It a Source of the Corporate Savings Glut?   by Atsushi Kawamoto and Kei Muraki 

Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition by Hideaki Matsuoka

Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19: A Global View   by William Maloney and Temel Taskin

Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes by Justin-Damien Guenette

Policy Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade   by Franz Ulrich Ruch 

Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies: Lessons from the Past Decade by Franz Ulrich Ruch 

Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt   by M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S.O. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies   by Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

Global Recessions   by M. Ayhan Kose, Naotaka Sugawara, and Marco E. Terrones

Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison   by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years after the Global Recession   by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge

Understanding the Cost of Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals   by Dana Vorisek and Shu Yu

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies   by Ichiro Fukunaga, Takuji Komatsuzaki, and Hideaki Matsuoka

The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand   by John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, and Peter Nagle

Debt and Financial Crises by Wee Chian Koh, M. Ayhan Kose, Peter S. Nagle, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

New Approaches to the Identification of Low-Frequency Drivers: An Application to Technology Shocks by Alistair Dieppe, Neville Francis, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Growth in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Prospects, and Policies by Rudi Steinbach

Casting a Shadow: Productivity of Formal Firms and Informality by Mohammad Amin, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, and Cedric Iltis Finafa Okou

Inflation in Low-Income Countries Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, Peter J. Montiel, and Peter Jouis Pedroni

Quality of Management of Firms in Turkey by Ximena Del Carpio and Temel Taskin

Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies by Sebastian Michael Essl, Sinem Kilic Celik, Patrick Alexander Kirby, and Andre Proite

Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence by M. Ayhan Kose, Hideaki Matsuoka, Ugo G. Panizza, and Dana Lauren Vorisek

Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge 

Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through by Jongrim Ha, Marc Stocker, and Hakan Yilmazkuday

Global Inflation Synchronization by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge

Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge

Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates by Jongrim Ha, Anna Ivanova, Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, and Derya Filiz Unsal Portillo Ocando 

Potential Growth: Outlook and Options for the Russian Federation by Yoki Okawa and Apurva Sanghi

Traders' Dilemma: Developing Countries' Response t o Trade Disputes   by Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, Csilla Lakatos, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder

Corporate Debt Overhang and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence by Eduardo Borensztein and Lei Sandy Ye

The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand   by John Baffes, Alain Kabundi, Peter Nagle, and Franziska Ohnsorge

The 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse in Retrospect: Sources and Implications by John Baffes, Marc Stocker, Y. Modeste Some, Dana Vorisek, and Collette M. Wheeler

The Global Costs of Protectionism   by Csilla Lakatos and Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova

Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey by M. Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Inperfections: A Survey by M. Ayhan Kose and Stijn Claessens

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space by M. Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Naotaka Sugawara

A Proximity-Based Approach to Labor Mobility in CGE Models with an Application to Sub-Saharan Africa by Hans Lofgren and Martín Cicowiez

Arm's-length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness by Csilla Lakatos and Franziska Lieselotte

Global Inequality in a More Educated World   by Syud Amer Ahmed, Maurizio Bussolo, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte

Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance by Syud Amer Ahmed, Enis Barış, Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Karen Thierfelder

How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge

Regional Dimensions of Recent Weakness in Investment: Drivers, Investment Needs and Policy Responses by Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Gerard Kambou, Derek Chen, Boaz Nandwa, Yoki Okawa, and Dana Vorisek

Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses by M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Lei Sandy Ye, Ergys Islamaj

The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers by M. Ayhan Kose, Csilla Lakatos, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker

Demographic Change and Development Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology by S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Bryce Quillin, and Philip Schellekens

From Commodity Discovery to Production by Tehmina Khan, Trang Nguyen, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Richard Schodde

Resource Misallocation in Turkey by Ha Nguyen, Temel Taskin and Ayberk Yilmaz

Impact of Social Assistance on Labor Market Mobility: The Case of Turke y by Deniz Alcan, Raif Can, Temel Taskin and William Wiseman

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications by Carlos Arteta, M. Ayhan Kose, Marc Stocker, and Temel Taskin 

On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty by Marcio Cruz and S. Amer Ahmed

Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa by S. Amer Ahmed and Marcio Cruz

Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts by Franziska L. Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker, and Modeste Y. Some

Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context by Franziska Ohnsorge and Shu Yu 

Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions? by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Jamus J. Lim, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge

Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies by Raju Huidrom M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska L. Ohnsorge

China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa by Csilla Lakatos, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, and Delfin Go 

Global Migration Revisited: Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration by S. Amer Ahmed, Delfin S. Go, and Dirk Willenbockel 

Organizing Knowledge to Compete Impacts of Capacity Building Programs on Firm Organization by Marcio Cruz, Maurizio Bussolo, and Leonardo Iacovone

How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? International Evidence by Ergys Islamaj and M. Ayhan Kose

Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa by Edward J. Balistreri, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, David G. Tarr, and Hidemichi Yonezawa 

What Explains Agricultural Price Movements? by John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis

Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran Global Effects and Strategic Responses: Global Effects and Strategic Responses by Elena Ianchovichina, Shantayanan Devarajan, and Csilla Lakatos

A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco by Israel Osorio Rodarte and Hans Lofgren

Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis by John Baffes and Xiaoli L. Etienne

Sources of Volatility during Four Oil Price Crashes by John Baffes and Varun Kshirsagar

What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market by John Baffes and Varun Kshirsagar

Does Input Tariff Reduction Impact Firms’ Exports in the Presence of Import Tariff Exemption Regimes? by Marcio Cruz and Maurizio Bussolo

Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach by Delfin S. Go, Hans Lofgren, Fabian Mendez Ramos, and Sherman Robinson 

How Significant Is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction? by S. Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz, Delfin S. Go, Maryla Maliszewska, and Israel Osorio-Rodarte 

Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters? by Marcio Cruz

Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages by Maurizio Bussolo, Jamus Jerome Lim, Maryla Maliszewska, and Hans Timmer 

The Long-Awaited Rise of the Middle Class in Latin America Is Finally Happening by Maurizio Bussolo, Maryla Maliszewska, and Elie Murard 

Beyond the Income Effect Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs on Private Investments in Human Capital by Marcio Cruz and Zacharias Ziegelhöfer

Unconventional Monetary Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries Implications for Emerging Market Capital Flows and Crisis Risks by Andrew Burns, Mizuho Kida, Jamus Jerome Lim, Sanket Mohapatra, Marc Stocker

Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries by Jamus Jerome Lim, Sanket Mohapatra, Marc Stocker

Creating and Using Fiscal Space for Accelerated Development in Liberia by Hans Lofgren

Infrastructure for Growth and Human Development in Pakistan: A Simulation Analysis of Fiscal Policy Options by Jouko Kinnunen and Hans Lofgren

Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices by John Baffes

Closing Rural-Urban MDG Gaps in Low-Income Countries: A General Equilibrium Perspective by Hans Lofgren

External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution: Alternative Scenarios for Moldova by Jouko Kinnunen, Hans Lofgren, Victor Sulla, and Dino Merotto 

2012 and before

Liberia: Strategic Policy Options for Medium Term Growth and Development by Sébastien Dessus, Jariya Hoffman, and Hans Lofgren 

World Food Prices and Human Development: Policy Simulations for Archetype Low-Income Countries by Hans Lofgren

Achieving the MDGs in Yemen: An Assessment by Abdulmajeed Al-Batuly, Mohamed Al-Hawri, Martin Cicowiez, Hans Lofgren, and Mohammad Pournik 

Cotton, Biotechnology, and Economic Development  (2011) by John Baffes

How Important Is the Efficiency of Government Investment? The Case of the Republic of Congo  (2011) by Hannah Nielsen and Hans Lofgren

Cotton Subsidies, the WTO, and the "Cotton Problem"  (2011) by John Baffes

Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective  (2010) by John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis

Markets for Cotton By-Products: Global Trends and Implications for African Cotton Producers  (2010) by John Baffes

More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link  (2009) by John Baffes 

Aid, Service Delivery, and the Millennium Development Goals in an Economy-wide Framework  (2008) by François Bourguignon, Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, and Hans Lofgren 

Oil Spills on Other Commodities  (2007) by John Baffes 

Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Going Back to the Basics Matters  (2006) by John Baffes

The Co-movement between Cotton and Polyester Prices  (2005) by John Baffes (World Bank) and Gaston Gohou (University of Maryland)

Disciplining Agricultural Support through Decoupling  (2005) by John Baffes (World Bank) and Harry de Gorter (Cornell University)

Cotton: Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues  (2004) by John Baffes 

Policy Research Notes

These research notes are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy.

• Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?
• Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies
• The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters?
• The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses

Last Updated: Sep 09, 2024

Economic Monitoring

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• Economic Monitoring Home Page The World Bank's Prospects Group conducts in-depth analysis of key global macroeconomic developments and their impact on World Bank member countries.
• Prospects Group Analysis The following analytical pieces were published in the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects flagship. They were produced by the Prospects Group. A selection from other publications is included.
• Macroeconomic Data (GEM) Monthly and annual data since 1990 on exchange rates, equity markets, interest rates, and debt markets, as well as monthly data on consumer prices, industrial production, and merchandise trade.
• Fiscal Space Data Access comprehensive cross-country data on fiscal space. The database covers 202 countries over the period 1990-2019, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal space.
• Commodity Price Data Monthly and annual commodity price data and indexes since 1960. Semi-annual report also available.
• Archive - Global Economic Prospects This World Bank Group flagship report examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. Available since 1991.
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Policy Research Working Paper series publication roundup for July 2022

Marcelo buitron, policy research working paper team.

This blog is a biweekly feature highlighting recent working papers from around the World Bank Group that were published in the World Bank’s Policy Research Working Paper Series . This entry introduces five papers published in July 2022 on various topics, including cash transfers, the war in Ukraine, and migration among others.

The first two papers we introduce examine cash transfer programs. In Conditional Cash Transfers and Gender-Based Violence—Does the Type of Violence Matter? , Elizaveta Perova and coauthors examine the effects of a conditional cash transfer program in the Philippines on gender-based violence. In With or Without Him? Experimental Evidence on Gender-Sensitive Cash Grants and Trainings in Tunisia , Nausheen Khan and coauthors explore whether it is possible to stimulate women’s employment by relaxing their financial and human capital constraints. 

• Conditional Cash Transfers and Gender-Based Violence—Does the Type of Violence Matter? uses a regression discontinuity design to examine the effects of a conditional cash transfer program in the Philippines on three types of gender-based violence: (i) intimate partner violence, (ii) domestic violence by non-partners and (iii) violence outside home. The study finds that while the grantees of the conditional cash transfer program did not experience any change in exposure to violence perpetrated by an intimate partner or non-family members, they did face significantly lower emotional violence perpetrated by non-partner family members. The study also examines mediating channels through which conditional cash transfers may affect gender-based violence, namely: (i) stress reduction due to higher income, (ii) increase in women’s empowerment, (iii) increase in women’s bargaining power, and (iv) strengthened social networks. The findings provide suggestive evidence of changes in all four mitigating channels.   
• Using a randomized control trial in Tunisia With or Without Him? Experimental Evidence on Gender-Sensitive Cash Grants and Trainings in Tunisia shows that providing cash grants and financial training to women stimulates their income generating activities, but only when their partners are not involved. The program did not alter traditional gender roles. Instead, it encouraged employment of other household members and investments in small-scale agriculture and livestock farming—two activities traditionally undertaken by women at home. The impacts on household living standards are overwhelmingly positive and suggest that the program is highly cost-effective.

The next two papers we introduce in this roundup examine two very timely topics. In Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security , Klaus Deininger and coauthors estimate direct and indirect effects of the war on area and expected yield of winter crops. In Fears and Tears: Should More People Be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and What Stops This Movement? , David McKenzie examines the evidence for different explanations given in the economics literature for the lack of movement of people and their implications for policy given the enormous gains in income possible through international and internal movement. 

• Quantifying War-Induced Crop Losses in Ukraine in Near Real Time to Strengthen Local and Global Food Security quantifies war-induced direct and indirect impacts on area and expected yield of winter crops using a 4-year (2019-22) panel of 10,125 village councils. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield. The paper suggests war-induced loss of winter crop output of 20% if the current winter crop can be harvested fully.

Figure 1: Example of location of fields damaged by fighting

• Fears and Tears: Should More People Be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and What Stops This Movement? shows that both internal and international migration appear to offer large benefits for many individuals, and for the optimal allocation of labor within and across countries. Yet most people never move in their lives. There are many potential reasons for this lack of movement, including information failures, liquidity constraints, high costs and policy barriers, and risk. The author argues in this paper that there are two other reasons for lack of movement that have been less a part of economic theories of migration. This includes i) the fears people have when faced with the uncertainty of moving to a new place, and ii) the reasons behind the tears they shed when moving. While these tears reveal the attachment people have to particular places, this attachment is not fixed, but itself changes with migration experiences. Psychological factors such as a bias toward the status quo and the inability to picture what one is giving up by not migrating can result in people not moving, even when they would benefit from movement and are not constrained by finances or policy barriers from doing so.

Finally, the last paper we introduce takes us to South America. In The Long-Term Impact of High School Financial Education: Evidence from Brazil , Miriam Bruhn and coauthors study the long-term effects of a comprehensive high school financial education program in Brazil. In 2011, the impact of a comprehensive financial education program was studied through a randomized controlled trial with 892 high schools in six Brazilian states. Half the schools were randomly selected to receive teacher training and financial education textbooks, which they integrated into the existing curriculum during the two last years of high school. Control group schools did not receive training or materials but participated in the surveys. Using administrative data, this paper followed 16,000 students for the next nine years. The short-term findings were that the treatment students used expensive credit and were behind on payments. By contrast, in the long-term, treatment students were less likely to borrow from expensive sources and to have loans with late payments than control students. Treatment students were also more likely to own microenterprises and less likely to be formally employed than control students. Figure 2 below shows the proportion of students with a positive credit balance for each year from 2016 to 2020.

Figure 2: Credit Usage over Time 

Notes: This figure shows the proportion of students in the authors’ sample that have positive credit balances, using monthly administrative data from the Credit Registry System (SCR), housed at the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB).

The following are other interesting papers published in the second half of June. Please make sure to read them as well.

• Poverty-Adjusted Life Expectancy: A Consistent Index of the Quantity and the Quality of Life
• Labor Informality and Market Segmentation in Senegal
• A Gendered Fiscal Incidence Analysis for Ethiopia: Evidence from Individual-Level Data
• Labor Market Transitions in Egypt Post-Arab Spring  
• Putting a Price on Safety—A Hedonic Price Approach to Flood Risk in African Cities
• Private but Misunderstood? Evidence on Measuring Intimate Partner Violence via Self-Interviewing in Rural Liberia and Malawi
• Will the Developing World’s Growing Middle Class Support Low-Carbon Policies?
• Life Cycle Savings in a High-Informality Setting—Evidence from Pakistan
• The Dog that Didn’t Bark: The Missed Opportunity of Africa’s Resource Boom
• Welfare Analysis of Changing Notches: Evidence from Bolsa Família
• Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-level Political Influence in 41 Economies
• Transactional Governance Structures: New Cross-Country Data and an Application to the Effect of Uncertainty
• Agriculture and Food
• Financial Inclusion
• Financial Sector
• Social Protection
• Europe and Central Asia
• Latin America & Caribbean
• Middle East and North Africa
• The World Region

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The Mis-Education of Women in Afghanistan: From Wage Premiums to Economic Losses

IZA Discussion Paper No. 17279

24 Pages Posted: 12 Sep 2024

Rafiuddin Najam

American University

Harry Patrinos

University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Raja Bentaouet Kattan

This paper uses microdata from the Labor Force and Household Surveys conducted in Afghanistan to show the wage premium differences for education between men and women, documenting a significantly larger premium for women. This sharp distinction is causal as demonstrated by analysis of the compulsory schooling law. Recent bans on women's education and employment are projected to have significant negative impacts on women's future schooling, wage growth, and national income growth.

Keywords: returns to schooling, returns to experience, investments in education, Afghanistan

JEL Classification: C13, J31

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Rafiuddin Najam (Contact Author)

American university ( email ).

4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW Washington, DC 20016 United States

University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ( email )

AR United States

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 United States

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