climate change essay in gujarati pdf

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Gujarat is battered by heat waves, floods, drought. How are its cities coping?

Rising climate variability is adding to the state’s environmental vulnerabilities..

What does the climate map of Gujarat currently look like?

Southern parts of the state get fewer days of rainfall now. In Surat, for instance, locals say that rainfall patterns over the city began changing about 15 years ago, with the city getting fewer days of rain each year. However, the rainfall is more intense, so Surat floods more often.

In Ahmedabad, 270 km to the north, the mercury topped 50 degrees Celsius last year – the previous high was 47.8 degrees Celsius over 100 years ago, in 1916 . Another 150 km to the north lies Banaskantha , a normally arid region. Here, heavy rains caused flooding this year. To the south-west, in arid Saurashtra, farmers and scientists talk about delayed monsoons, increasingly torrential downpours and increased flooding .

There is little that is surprising here. Across India, climate variability is disrupting the structures of everyday life. In 2015, changing mid-latitude westerlies triggered a whitefly infestation that ruined Punjab’s cotton crop. In Tamil Nadu, rising sea temperatures have affected the fish catch. Inland, towards the town of Sivagangai, a weakening South-West monsoon has contributed to a drop in farm earnings and rising indebtedness. In Bihar, scientists in the agriculture university outside Bhagalpur say that crop yields are falling as heat waves increase in frequency.

The first five states Scroll.in’s Ear To The Ground project reported from – Mizoram, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Bihar – were not doing much to adapt to, or mitigate the effects of, such climatic changes.

What about Gujarat?

Environmental vulnerabilities

Till the early 2000s, Gujarat had a very different sense of its environmental vulnerabilities.

In 1998, a super cyclone had ripped through the port city of Kandla. Three years later, a quake reduced Bhuj to rubble. In response, Gujarat conducted a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

GK Bhat, the founder of Taru, an environmental consultancy based in Ahmedabad, said that the major environmental risks the study flagged were drought, flood, cyclone and earthquakes. Of these, the greatest exposure was to drought, he said.

Since then, Gujarat has tried hard to drought-proof itself. Apart from building check dams to boost groundwater levels, it kicked off two large water management programmes – both feeding off the Sardar Sarovar Dam. The first was Sujlam Suflam – a canal that moves surplus Narmada waters (what is left during the monsoons after statutory allocations to all states) to North Gujarat. This canal was left unlined hoping it would recharge groundwater levels along its route. The second was Sauni Yojana – a network of pipelines that takes Narmada water to Saurashtra.

But now, rising climate variability is adding to the state’s environmental vulnerabilities.

Gujarat claims to have taken climate variability more seriously than other states. As Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi wrote a book on climate change. Gujarat was the first state in India to set up a department for climate change. Its cities are developing plans that seek to adapt or mitigate the worst fallout of climatic stress. While Ahmedabad has a roadmap to handle heat waves, Surat has a similar blueprint to tackle floods.

How far do the state’s efforts help Gujarat adapt to – and mitigate – the fallouts of a changing climate? Scroll.in’s Ear To The Ground project decided to take a closer look. Given that Gujarat is one of India’s most urbanised states, we studied urban planning to see how well adaptation and mitigation are being mainstreamed into the planning and implementation processes in the state.

But first, how exactly does climate variability affect cities?

Cities and climate trends

Climate variability affects cities in two ways essentially. The first is in the form of extreme weather like heavy rain or floods. And the second, in slower, subtler ways, like gradual increases in temperature or an increase in the sea level.

Think of the first as a shock. The second, as a stress. Gujarat is seeing both. Its cities saw heavy downpours during the 2017 monsoon. At the same time, temperature patterns are changing, said Saswat Bandopadhyay, faculty member in the department of planning at Ahmedabad’s CEPT University. In Ahmedabad, for instance, the difference between daytime and night-time temperature has reduced. “At one time, even if the mercury went up to 45 degrees Celsius, nights were pleasant and temperatures came down to [between] 25 degrees Celsius and 26 degrees Celsius,” he said. But now, he added, “They come down just half as much – to [between] 32 degrees Celsius and 34 degrees Celsius.”

Shocks and stresses come with different challenges for a city.

The first comes with cascading fallouts, said Bhat. He cited the example of especially heavy rainfall. Its first fallout is not flooding but traffic jams, he said. During these events, cities start shutting down. “Cities depend on networks – a flow of milk, a flow of food, cash for ATMs,” said Bhat. “As one urban system fails, it incapacitates the others. And cities see a progressive network failure.”

Bhat drew an analogy with a living system. “These [urban failures] are not independent failures,” he said. “But multi-organ failure. Every failing organ incapacitates the rest – reaching social unrest and epidemics in its higher reaches.”

Rising temperatures, on the other hand, trigger a spiral. For instance, when night brings no relief from high temperatures, as in Ahmedabad, many people cannot sleep without the use of air-conditioners . But these expel hot air, which heats the city up further.

How do urban planners respond to such challenges? One part of the response lies in zoning. Bandopadhyay said each city needs natural spaces that absorb environmental shocks. If a city is vulnerable to floods, it needs to create spaces where the water can collect and get absorbed. If high temperatures are a problem, ensuring sufficient green cover is one way to cool the city down.

He referred to the climate mitigation efforts of Parramatta, a suburb of Sydney, Australia. “They created a very detailed assessment of surface temperatures and then looked at the level of surface greening needed to manage that,” he said.

He added that its planners also asked other questions, like the building material that should be used in the region. “They modelled wind patterns because city layouts [like tall buildings] would influence those.”

So far, urban India has not done much to mitigate the effects of climate variability . Instead of using building materials suitable for our climate, a lot of modern construction in India relies on inappropriate construction materials. Several malls and office buildings, for instance, are clad in glass panels, which absorb heat and drive up cooling costs.

Similarly, most Indian cities have a low tree cover and more hard surfaces. “Most of our plots are concretised to maximise built-up space,” said Bandopadhyay. “The land outside is also paved over and tarred. There is very little open area for water absorption.”

The fallout? As Bengaluru found recently, even after heavy rains, there is little groundwater recharge. At the same time, lakes, which recharge groundwater, are being killed through real estate development. Little thought is given to water supply. When water scarcities loom, urban areas source water from increasingly lenghty distances. Government efforts often ignore the poor, forcing them into private water markets.

In peri-urban areas, something else is awry. Take any city, said Bhat, and you will find that the panchayat president has given permission for even five-to-seven-storey buildings to be constructed in villages that fall outside municipal boundaries. “When the municipal corporation expands its limits, it finds these strange places where buildings are standing – but there are no roads, water supply or sewage,” he said. “The whole place works only on groundwater.”

As climate change becomes a reality, all this needs to change.

Rajkot’s response

To understand how Gujarat is factoring changing climate trends into urban planning, this correspondent visited Rajkot.

Rajkot, the fourth-biggest city in Gujarat after Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Surat, is located close to the centre of Saurashtra. The city is urbanising rapidly as people, drawn by both its industrial and service economy as well as Gujarat’s weakening rural economy, flock here. It is also a water-scarce city. Its second revised draft development plan (2031) says: “[Rajkot Municipal Corporation] is able to supply only 20 minutes of water daily as against the benchmark of 24 hours.”

A closer look at the city’s work on preparing for climate change shows a mixed picture.

On some fronts, Rajkot is doing well. To make the city more energy-efficient, Rajkot’s Municipal Corporation has made solar heaters mandatory. Rainwater harvesting is mandatory too. These efforts, however, are undercut by other decisions. As it expands, Rajkot is leaving very little room for environmental sinks like green zones. As a city grows, it should leave about 30% of its surface area for green zones and environmental sinks, said Mahesh Rajasekar, a former environmental consultant with Taru. “What holds true for a nation also holds true at a smaller, ward level.”

But Rajkot’s old city has a green cover of about 2%, and its periphery does not fare any better.

A town planner who has worked in both the Rajkot Municipal Corporation and the Rajkot Urban Development Authority, who did not want to be identified, explained why this was the case. He said that as a planner, he can take 30% to 40% of a land-owner’s land for a public purpose. “Half of that will go into roads,” he said. “Some more will go into civic infrastructure. The rest goes into parks and gardens. You will not have as much green zone as desired.”

Or take water. Rajkot currently needs about 270 million litres of water every day. Of this, it gets about 125 million litres from local reservoirs and it draws about 155 million litres to 165 million litres from the Narmada. “Our total supply is 300 MLD [million litres a day],” said senior municipal corporation official. “What we use is 270 MLD. We have a small buffer.”

That will change with the city’s expansion. By 2031, the town’s water demand will be 400 million litres a day, he said. Where will this water come from?

“Ask about water supply and officials say they will get it from the Narmada,” said Bandopadhyay. But that is easier said than done. The water from the Sauni network of pipelines comes with its own uncertainties.

Said the municipal official: “I have full reliability from my local reservoirs. But Sauni will not be 100% reliable. Like us, all corporations are planning till 2045. and making their own [water] drawal plans.”

That is not all. Water from the Sauni project is expensive. “The cost of my water from Aji and Nyari [rivers] is Rs 2 to Rs 3 per kilolitre,” said the municipal corporation official. “The cost of the water from the Sauni [project] is Rs 12 to Rs 15 [per kilolitre].”

The water from the Sauni is so expensive due to the cost of energy used to transport it. It has to be pumped uphill from near sea level – where the Narmada reservoir is – to Saurashtra whose topography is like an inverted bowl.

There is the option of seawater. But desalination is even costlier. And so, the corporation is focusing on water recycling and reuse. But there is a problem even there – the lack of funds. To expand water coverage, the municipal corporation needs Rs 1,761 crores. But it does not have the money for this.

“Octroi was abolished in 2005,” said the municipal corporation official explaining how the corporation’s financial condition has weakened. “In 2007, property tax was done away with.” He said that some of the corporation’s losses were recouped due to the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission but the advantage of octroi and property tax was their untied nature. “Every city could choose how to use that money,” he said. “In contrast, these grants are tied funds.”

To make up the shortfall in revenue, the corporation is now applying for grants like the Centre’s Smart City programme and Amrut (the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission in a new avatar). But these grants are limited and come with caveats.

Said the municipal officer: “What we got from Amrut is Rs 293 crores. From Smart City, Rs 250 crores. Also, this money is only for capital expenses. How do I pay for operations and maintenance?”

These are puzzling contradictions. If Rajkot was not serious about fighting climate variability, it would not have taken the steps it did. At the same time, if it is alive to the risk of a changing climate, why is it not creating sustainable cities?

The answer may lie in analysing how Gujarat’s Urban Development Authorities function.

This is the first part of a two-part series.

• Ear to the Ground

Dispatches from the states

• Climate change
• climate vulnerability

• डाउन टू अर्थ
• Print Edition

• Agriculture
• Data Centre
• Young Environmentalist
• Newsletters

Climate change in India: Gujarat faces problem of plenty

Fifty five-year Khan Mohammed Abdarman is a proud Maldhari, one of India’s oldest pastoral communities that has lived a nomadic life in Gujarat’s arid Banni grassland for over 500 years. But in 2007, he decided to do the unthinkable—to settle down and do farming. “The decision was difficult, but it had to be taken as I was unable to feed my cattle, who we consider our family members,” says Abdarman, who today grows guar and jowar in 20 hectares. He says it was the only way he could adapt to the sudden increase in rainfall in the arid grassland, which is home to more than 40,000 Maldharis.

He explains that the increase in rainfall meant the grassland got taken over by Prosopis juliflora, an invasive species that was introduced in the area in the 1950s. The species, locally called gando baval, literally, the crazy growing tree, today covers almost 55 per cent of the grassland, spanning over 2,500 sq km. This has led to an acute shortage of fodder. Interestingly, the rains made the arid region conducive to farming.

“Traditionally, the region received rainfall every four years. Starting 2000, it has been raining almost every year,” says Pankaj Joshi, executive director of local non-profit Sehjeevan. Ovee Thorat, researcher with Bengaluru-based Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and Environ- ment (ATREE), says the last long dry spell in the region was seen between 1970 and 1980. Data with the Bhuj Metrological Observatory shows that the area today receives 1.4 times more rainfall than the average in 1991-2000.

While changing rain pattern sets the stage for agriculture, other factors pushed the Maldharis to bring the land under plough. “Around 2008, the forest department started to cut plots in the reserve to stop ingress of saline water from the neighbouring salt mash of Rann of Kachchh. The community viewed the move as a way to lay claim on the grassland over which they have traditional ownership,” says Thorat. The fear was further fuelled because the state government is yet to give community forest rights (CFR) to the Maldharis under the Forest Rights Act 2006, he says. The community, in 2012, filed for 47 CFR claims. Today, farming is being carried out in over 17,000 ha, which is roughly 7 per cent of the reserve.

The sudden surge in farming has divided the community. In May this year, Banni Breeders Association, a local organisation of Maldharis working to conserve the grassland, filed a petition in the National Green Tribunal against rampant farming. On July 11, the tribunal told the forest and revenue department to stop all agricultural activity in the grassland.

“We have been rearing cattle for generations. That is what we do. In the past five or six years, farming has become rampant. This is not good for community as we are not like the settled agriculturists,” says Salam Hasham Halepotra of Hodko village. He owns around 100 buffaloes. He says from being an area where resources was communally owned, people are staking individual claim on the grassland by converting those into agricultural lands. Last year, Misriyara panchayat in eastern Banni region asked the district collector to intervene and through a public meeting made the encroachers stop farming. “To save the farmlands, they started digging trenches around the field where our buffaloes would often fall and die. Our estimate is that the community was losing over 200 animals every year due to the trenches. So we had to stop it,” says Bhuddha Hazi Khamisha, sarpanch of the panchayat.

Farming is destroying not only the community, but also the ecology of the grassland. “Banni’s landscape, like any other ecologically sensitive area, has reached here through a long process of successive natural changes. Agriculture will tip the balance and reduce the nature’s ability to restore the land. Once ploughed, the soil is exposed to erosion due to the sea breeze. Over the time, only the lower alkaline soil layers will be left. Then nothing will grow here,” warns Joshi.

“The wind velocity during summer is very high in Banni. If the land is ploughed, the high rate of top soil erosion will lead to desertification,” says Vijay Kumar, director, Gujarat Institute of Desert Ecology.

(This article was first published in Down To Earth's October 16-31 print edition under the headline 'On a losing streak')

(This is the fifth article in a six-part series on climate change in India. Read the first  here , second  here , third  here  and fourth here )

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Climate change in Gujarat: A bar towards sustainable development

Stuti Haldar , Indira Dutta | 2016

Climate change in the 21st century has emerged as a burning issue on the global platform. It has profound effects on the lives and stability of ecosystems all across the globe. Gujarat is no exception to the ambush of this perilous phenomenon. It has been noticed that the sea levels are rising, temperatures are shooting up and seasonal cycles have been disrupted frequently due to climate change in Gujarat. On the economic and industrial front Gujarat has emerged as a winning horse among all Indian states. But when we estimate its progress on the scale of sustainable development Gujarat appears to be quite behind. With the growing consciousness of the world towards the global menace of climate change we are now marching from the Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals. The dynamic state of Gujarat also needs to fasten its seat belts and accelerate swiftly towards the target of Sustainable Development Goals. There is an utmost need for participatory and inclusive efforts to evade the surging ecological, economic and social crisis accruing to global warming. Gujarat today needs institutional reforms and policy reforms that can mitigate the far reaching and harsh blisters of climate change especially on the poorer and vulnerable spectrum of the society. The herculean task of achieving the target Sustainable Development Goals can only be met by Gujarat if we join forces regionally, nationally and globally against the menace of climate change.

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Climate Change : પૃથ્વી પરનું પાણી ખતમ થઈ જશે? શું છે એનાં કારણો અને ઉપાય?

કેટલાક મહિના પહેલાંની વાત છે. ઓછા વરસાદ અને દુકાળના કારણે ઈરાનની નદીઓ સુકાઈ ગઈ. પાણીની અછતના કારણે આખા દેશમાં ઉગ્ર વિરોધપ્રદર્શનો થયાં હતાં.

2019ના વર્ષે, ભારતનાં સૌથી મોટાં શહેરોમાંના એક ચેન્નાઈમાં સર્જાયેલું પાણીસંકટ અખબારોમાં ચમક્યું હતું. એ સમયે ચર્ચા છેડાઈ હતી કે વધી રહેલા ઔદ્યોગિકીકરણ, શહેરીકરણ અને જળવાયુપરિવર્તનની અસર કેવી કેવી પાયમાલી સર્જી શકે છે.

2018માં ભયંકર દુકાળના કારણે દક્ષિણ આફ્રિકાના કૅપટાઉનમાં વ્યક્તિદીઠ દરરોજ 50 લીટર જ પાણીપુરવઠાની મર્યાદા અમલમાં મુકાઈ હતી.

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, GOOGLE EARTH

વર્ષ 2014માં બ્રાઝિલમાં સાઓ પાઓલો અને ઑસ્ટ્રેલિયાના પર્થમાં પણ પાણીસંબંધિત સ્થિતિ કંઈક આવી જ હતી.

ઘણા સમય પહેલાંથી જળસંકટ માટે અયોગ્ય આયોજન, જળસ્રોતોમાં આવકની ઘટ અને જળવાયુપરિવર્તનને કારણભૂત ગણાવવામાં આવે છે. જોકે, આ સમસ્યા કે એનાં કારણો કંઈ નવાં નથી.

1980ના દાયકાથી દુનિયામાં પાણીના વપરાશનો દર પ્રતિવર્ષ લગભગ એક ટકા વધી રહ્યો છે અને લગભગ આ દર પ્રમાણે જ 2050 સુધી વપરાશ વધતો રહેવાનું અનુમાન છે.

જાણકારો માને છે કે ભવિષ્યમાં પાણીની માગ અને જળવાયુપરિવર્તનની અસર વધવાના કારણે જળસ્રોતો પરનું ભારણ ખૂબ જ વધશે.

તો પ્રશ્ન એ છે કે, શું ધરતી પરથી પાણી સમાપ્ત થઈ રહ્યું છે? આપણે જાણવાનો પ્રયાસ કરીએ કે આ સમસ્યાનો ઉકેલ શો હોઈ શકે.

• ક્લાઇમેટ ચેન્જ શું છે અને આપણા માટે ખતરો કેમ? સમજો સરળ રીતે
• COP26 શિખર પરિષદ શું છે અને આપણા માટે કેમ મહત્ત્વની છે?

એક બાજુ દુકાળ તો બીજી બાજુ પૂર

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, pixelfusion3d

જેમ્સ ફૅમ્લિએટી સાસ્કાચેવાન યુનિવર્સિટીમાં ગ્લોબલ ઇન્સ્ટિટ્યૂટ ફૉર વૉટર સિક્યૉરિટીના કાર્યકારી નિર્દેશક છે. આની પહેલાં તેઓ કૅલિફોર્નિયામાં નાસામાં જળવૈજ્ઞાનિક હતા.

કૅલિફોર્નિયાનાં જંગલોમાં દર વર્ષે આગ લાગે છે; પણ, આશ્ચર્યની વાત એ છે કે શાકભાજી અને ફળોની બાબતે દેશની જરૂરિયાતનો એક તૃતીયાંશ ભાગ અહીં જ ઉગાડવામાં આવે છે.

જેમ્સે જણાવ્યું કે, "જો આપણે ખેતી માટેનાં પાણીની વાત કરીએ તો કદાચ દુનિયાના બધા ખેતીલાયક વિસ્તારોની સ્થિતિ કૅલિફોર્નિયા જેવી હશે."

"જ્યાં જે ઉગાડવામાં આવે છે એ માત્ર ત્યાંની જ નહીં, પરંતુ બીજા વિસ્તારોની જરૂરિયાત પણ પૂરી કરે છે. જ્યારે બીજા વિસ્તારો અહીંની ખેતી માટેની પાણીની જરૂરિયાત પૂરી પાડતા નથી. આ બિનટકાઉ રીત છે."

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, REUTERS/AMANDA PEROBELLI

નાસાએ 2002માં મહત્ત્વનું ગ્રેસ મિશન શરૂ કર્યું હતું. 15 વર્ષ ચાલેલા આ મિશનમાં સેટેલાઇટ તસવીરો દ્વારા પૃથ્વી પરના જળસ્રોતોની સ્થિતિ અને જળવિતરણને સમજવાનો પ્રયત્ન થયો હતો.

જેમ્સ જણાવે છે કે, "ગ્રેસ મિશનમાં અમને ધરતીના બંને ગોળાર્ધોમાં એક વૈશ્વિક પૅટર્નની વિશે જાણવા મળ્યું."

"દુનિયાનો એ ભાગ જ્યાં ભરપૂર માત્રામાં પાણી છે તેનો પુરવઠો વધી રહ્યો છે, જ્યારે બીજા ભાગો શુષ્ક બનતા જાય છે. આ પૅટર્નમાં દેખાય છે કે જળપ્લાવિત વિસ્તારોમાં વારંવાર પૂર આવે છે અને શુષ્ક વિસ્તારોમાં દુકાળ પડે છે."

વૈશ્વિક સ્તરે સતત સુકાતા જતા જળસ્રોતો માટે ગ્લોબલ વૉર્મિંગ અને ખેતી એ મુખ્ય ભાગ ભજવે છે, પરંતુ એ માટે બીજાં કારણો પણ છે.

• ક્લાયમેટ ચેન્જ : પર્યાવરણની એ સમસ્યાઓ જેને માણસજાત પહોંચી વળી

શહેરીકરણનો વધતો જતો વિસ્તાર

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, Atul Loke/Getty

દુનિયાની કુલ વસ્તીમાંથી 17.5 ટકા ભારતમાં રહે છે, પણ અહીં ધરતીનો તાજાં પાણીનો સ્રોત માત્ર ચાર ટકા જ છે.

સમ્રાટ બસાક વર્લ્ડ રિસોર્સિસ ઇન્સ્ટિટ્યૂટમાં ભારતના શહેરી જળ કાર્યક્રમના નિર્દેશક છે.

તેઓ જણાવે છે કે તાજેતરનાં વરસોમાં જે ઝડપે લોકોની આવક વધી છે, એટલી જ ઝડપે પાણીની માગ પણ વધી છે.

તેમણે જણાવ્યું કે, "લોકો ઍરકંડિશનર, ફ્રિજ, વૉશિંગ મશીન જેવાં ઉપકરણો વધારે ખરીદે છે."

"દેશમાં વીજળીની કુલ જરૂરિયાતના 65 ટકાથી પણ વધારે વીજળી થર્મલ પાવરપ્લાન્ટ્સ દ્વારા મળે છે અને એમાં પાણીનો અધિકતમ ઉપયોગ થાય છે; અને જો વીજળીનો ઉપયોગ વધારે થાય તો એના ઉત્પાદન માટે પાણીની માગ પણ એટલી જ વધશે."

સમ્રાટ જણાવે છે કે આવક વધવાની સાથે લોકોની ખાનપાનની ટેવો બદલાય છે. પ્રોસેસ્ડ ફૂડનો વપરાશ વધ્યો છે અને પહેલાંની સરખામણીએ પાણીની જરૂરિયાત વધી છે.

આ ઉપરાંત શહેરીકરણનો વધતો વ્યાપ અને વરસાદી પાણી વહી જવું એ પણ મોટી સમસ્યા છે. દેશમાં પીવાના પાણીની જરૂરિયાતના 85 ટકા પાણી ભૂગર્ભમાંથી પ્રાપ્ત થાય છે.

સમ્રાટ જણાવે છે કે, "શહેરીકરણની રીત બદલાઈ રહી છે. જમીન પર કૉન્ક્રિટની ચાદર પથરાઈ રહી છે, જેનાથી જમીનની સપાટી સખત અને અભેદ્ય બની રહી છે."

"આ ઉપરાંત, જંગલો કાપીને પણ જમીનને નક્કર બનાવાય છે. એનાથી જમીન પાણી શોષી શકતી નથી અને તેથી, વરસાદનું પાણી કુદરતી વ્યવસ્થા પ્રમાણે સંગ્રહ થવાના બદલે વહી જાય છે."

દેશનાં લગભગ 79 ટકા ઘરમાં પીવાના પાણીના નળની સગવડ પહોંચી નથી. ઘણા વિસ્તારોમાં લોકોને પીવાનું પાણી ખરીદવું પડે છે. પ્રદૂષિત પાણીના કારણે દેશમાં દર વરસે લગભગ બે લાખ લોકોનાં મૃત્યુ થાય છે અને હજારો લોકો બીમાર પડે છે.

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, REUTERS/GUGLIELMO MANGIAPANE

જળસંકટની અસર પરિવારો પર તો પડે જ છે, સાથોસાથ સમાજ પર પણ પડે છે.

સમ્રાટ જણાવે છે કે, "જળસંકટ વ્યક્તિને ક્યારેય બહાર ન નીકળી શકાય એવી ગરીબીની દારુણ અવસ્થામાં ધકેલે છે અને સમાજમાં અસમાનતા વધારે છે."

"સામાજિક અને આર્થિક રીતે પછાત લોકો પાણી માટે વધારે ખર્ચ કરી શકતા નથી. એની અસર એમના સ્વાસ્થ્ય પર પડે છે અને તેઓ દુષ્ચક્રમાં ફસાતા જાય છે."

કૅલિફોર્નિયા અને ભારતમાં જે કંઈ થઈ રહ્યું છે, એ દુનિયાના બીજા કેટલાય ભાગોની પણ હકીકત છે. પણ શું આપણે એમ કહી શકીએ એમ છીએ કે પૃથ્વી પરનું પાણી ખતમ થઈ રહ્યું છે?

• ક્લાયમેટ ચેન્જ : એ ચાર વસ્તુ જેના થકી તમે કાર્બન ઉત્સર્જન ઘટાડી શકો છો

જરૂરિયાત અને ઉપયોગ

કૅટ બ્રાઉમૅન યુનિવર્સિટી ઑફ મિનેસાટામાં ગ્લોબલ વૉટર ઇનિશિયેટિવનાં લીડ આસિસ્ટન્ટ છે. તેમણે કહ્યું કે વાસ્તવિક સમસ્યા પાણીની અછતની નથી, બલકે એની જરૂરિયાત અને પ્રાપ્યતાની છે.

તેમણે જણાવ્યું, "આપણે જાણીએ છીએ કે જળવાયુપરિવર્તનના લીધે પૂર વધારે આવશે અને દુકાળ પણ પડશે. આમ જોઈએ તો ધરતી પરનું પાણી ઓછું નથી થયું; પણ આપણને ત્યારે વધારે પાણી મળે છે, જ્યારે એની જરૂર નથી હોતી, અને જ્યાં એની જરૂર છે, ત્યાં એ મળતું નથી."

કૅટ સમ્રાટ બસાકની એ વાત સાથે સંમત છે કે શહેરીકરણના કારણે વરસાદી પાણી હવે જમીનના તળમાં નથી ઊતરતું.

જોકે, તેઓ એમ કહે છે કે આ માત્ર પુરવઠાની વાત છે, જ્યારે અછતનાં કારણો બીજાં જ છે.

તેમણે જણાવ્યું કે, "સંકટનું એક મોટું કારણ પાણીના ઉપયોગ સાથે સંકળાયેલું છે. આપણે ધરતી પર ઉપલબ્ધ પાણીના હિસાબે એનો ઉપયોગ કરવાનું શીખ્યા નથી અને જ્યારે આપણે એમ કહીએ છીએ કે પાણી ખલાસ થઈ રહ્યું છે; ત્યારે, ખરેખર તો આપણે એમ કહીએ છીએ કે આપણે પાણીનો જેટલા ઉપયોગ કરવા માગીએ છીએ તેટલો થઈ શકતો નથી."

આ લેખમાં Google YouTube દ્વારા પૂરું પાડવામાં આવેલું કન્ટેન્ટ છે. કંઈ પણ લોડ થાય તે પહેલાં અમે તમારી મંજૂરી માટે પૂછીએ છીએ કારણ કે તેઓ કૂકીઝ અને અન્ય તકનીકોનો ઉપયોગ કરી શકે છે. તમે સ્વીકારતા પહેલાં Google YouTube કૂકીઝ નીતિ અને ગોપનીયતાની નીતિ વાંચી શકો છો. આ સામગ્રી જોવા માટે 'સ્વીકારો અને ચાલુ રાખો'ના વિકલ્પને પસંદ કરો.

YouTube કન્ટેન્ટ પૂર્ણ, 1

આ કન્ટેન્ટ ઉપલબ્ધ નથી

કૅટ એમ કહે છે કે પાણીનો કેવો ઉપયોગ થાય છે, એના પર ઘણું બધું નિર્ભર છે. દાખલા તરીકે, ખેતર મોટું છે તો બાષ્પીભવન વધારે થશે, ઘરમાં ઉપયોગમાં લીધેલું પાણી ફેંકી દેવાય તો વહી જશે. આનાથી જળચક્ર તો ચાલતું રહેશે પણ એનાથી ના તો ભૂ-જળસ્તર વધશે કે ના તો આગળ જતાં વપરાશી પાણી ઉપલબ્ધ રહેશે.

તેમણે જણાવ્યું કે, "પ્રદૂષણ પણ એક સમસ્યા છે. માનો કે પાણી છે; પણ ઉપયોગ કરવા લાયક નથી, તો એ તો ન હોવા બરાબર ગણાય."

"પાણી સુધી પહોંચવા માટે માળખાકીય સુવિધાઓ પણ મહત્ત્વપૂર્ણ છે. પાણી કેટલું છે અને કયાં ઘરો સુધી પહોંચશે, એ નિર્ણયો જરૂરી હોય છે અને અભાવ પણ અસમાનતા ઊભી કરે છે."

કૅટ માને છે કે ભવિષ્યમાં, ધરતી પરનું પાણી કદાચ ખલાસ ન થાય, પણ વસતીવધારાના કારણે પડકારો વધશે એ નક્કી.

• ક્લાઇમેટ ચેન્જ : ભારતે કેવાં વચનો આપ્યા હતાં અને તેમાંથી કેટલાં પૂરાં કર્યાં?

સમસ્યાનો સામનો કઈ રીતે કરીએ

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, EPA/YAHYA ARHAB

ડેનિયલ શેમી ધ નેચર કન્ઝર્વન્સીમાં રિજિલેઅન્ટ વૉટરશેડ સ્ટ્રેટેજી નિર્દેશક છે. તેઓ જણાવે છે કે જળસંકટનો સામનો કરવાની શરૂઆત ખેતીથી થવી જોઈએ.

તેમણે જણાવ્યું કે, "કઈ જગ્યાએ, શેની ખેતી થઈ રહી છે, એમાં સમજણનો અભાવ છે. આપણે શીખવું પડશે કે પાણીનો યોગ્ય ઉપયોગ કરીને ક્યાં કેવા પ્રકારની ખેતી કરી શકાય એમ છે. એના માટે આપણે વિશેષજ્ઞોની મદદ લઈ શકીએ."

જોકે એ અલગ મુદ્દો છે કે એના માટે આપણે કેટલા તૈયાર છીએ. ડેનિયલે જણાવ્યું કે જળપ્રદૂષણનો સામનો કરવા આપણે તૈયાર છીએ.

તેમણે કહ્યું કે મોટા ભાગના મામલામાં એ સરકારની જવાબદારી હોય છે અને એના માટે તે ઉદ્યોગોને ફરજ પાડે છે, પણ જળસંશોધન ખર્ચાળ કામ છે અને એ જ મોટી અડચણ છે.

એક સવાલ એ પણ છે કે શું આપણે સમુદ્રનું પાણી પીવાલાયક ન બનાવી શકીએ?

ડેનિયલે જણાવ્યું કે, "એ દિલચસ્પ તકનીક જરૂર છે, પણ આજની તારીખે ખારા પાણીમાંથી મીઠું (સૉલ્ટ) છૂટું પાડવાની પ્રક્રિયા ખૂબ મોંઘી છે; એટલું જ નહીં પણ ઊર્જાના વપરાશની દૃષ્ટિએ પણ યોગ્ય નથી, ખાસ કરીને ત્યારે જ્યારે ઊર્જાસંકટ મોટો મુદ્દો છે."

અહીં એક સવાલ એ પણ છે કે આ પ્રક્રિયામાં જે મીઠું (સૉલ્ટ) બનશે એનું શું કરાશે? એને ના તો જમીન પર ફેંકી શકાય અને ના તો સમુદ્રમાં. તો પછી જળસંકટનો સામનો કરીશું કઈ રીતે?

ડેનિયલે જણાવ્યું કે, "બાગ-બગીચા અને શહેરો-ગામડાઓમાં મોજૂદ હરિયાળીવાળા વિસ્તારોમાં એની સંભાવના છે. એ વિસ્તારો સ્પંજની જેમ કામ કરે છે, એટલે કે જો આપણે કૉન્ક્રિટથી હટીને વધારેમાં વધારે એવી જમીનો તૈયાર કરીએ કે જે પાણી શોષી શકે તો વરસાદનું પાણી નકામું વહી નહીં જાય અને ભૂ-જળસ્તર વધશે."

પણ, શું આપણે પ્રયત્નો દ્વારા નીચે ઊતરી રહેલા ભૂ-જળસ્તરની સ્થિતિને સુધારી શકીએ?

• COP26 : વડા પ્રધાન નરેન્દ્ર મોદી માટે ગ્લાસગો કૉન્ફરન્સ શા માટે મહત્ત્વની છે?

થોડા પ્રયત્નો, મોટું પરિવર્તન

ઇમેજ સ્રોત, Getty Images

તરુણ ભારત સંઘના ચૅરમૅન રાજેન્દ્રસિંહ છેલ્લાં ચાળીસ વરસોથી રાજસ્થાનની ઉજ્જડ જમીનને હરિયાળી બનાવવાનું કામ કરે છે, એમને વૉટરમૅન ઑફ ઇન્ડિયાના નામે ઓળખવામાં આવે છે.

તેમણે કહ્યું કે, ધરતીનું પાણી ખતમ નથી થઈ રહ્યું, બલકે એનું અતિક્રમણ, પ્રદૂષણ અને શોષણ વધી રહ્યું છે.

તેમણે કહ્યું કે, "પાણીનો જે પ્રશ્ન છે એને આધુનિક શિક્ષણે વધારે ગંભીર બનાવ્યો છે. આધુનિક શિક્ષણમાં આપણી ટેક્‌નોલૉજી અને એન્જિનિયરિંગ પ્રાકૃતિક સંસાધનોના વધુમાં વધુ ઉપયોગને વિકાસનો માપદંડ માને છે."

"આ માપદંડ આપણા માટે ખતરનાક છે. આ શિક્ષણને કારણે લોકો 300 ફૂટથી માંડીને 2000 ફૂટ સુધીનાં ઊંડાં ભૂજળને કાઢી રહ્યા છે."

દુનિયાભરમાં ભૂજળનો જેટલો ઉપયોગ થાય છે, એના 25 ટકા એકલા ભારતમાં થાય છે; અને આ બાબતમાં ભારત ચીન અને અમેરિકા કરતાં આગળ છે.

રાજેન્દ્રસિંહે જણાવ્યું કે પાણીનું સંકટ સમુદાયો વચ્ચે માત્ર એક જુદા પ્રકારનો તણાવ નથી જન્માવતું, બલકે પડકારો પણ ઊભા કરે છે.

તેમણે કહ્યું કે, "પાણીની અછતને કારણે આખી દુનિયામાં વિસ્થાપન વધી રહ્યું છે. એ કારણે જે લોકો એક જગ્યાએથી બીજી જગ્યાએ જાય છે એમને ક્લાયમેટ રૅફ્યૂજી કહેવાય છે."

"જળસંકટ થર્ડ વર્લ્ડ વૉટર વૉરને નિમંત્રણ આપી રહ્યું છે. એટલા માટે એક તરફ આપણે પાણીના ઉપયોગની આવડત વધારવાની જરૂર છે, તો બીજી બાજુ જળસંરક્ષણ કરવાની અને જળ પરના સમુદાયોના અધિકાર જાળવી રાખવાની જરૂર છે."

"પાણી પરના લોકોના અધિકાર માટે ઉદ્યોગો સૌથી મોટું જોખમ છે અને એ સૌથી મોટો પડકાર છે."

રાજેન્દ્રસિંહ માને છે કે જો જળસંકટની સમસ્યા નિવારી શકાય તો જળવાયુપરિવર્તનને વધતું અટકાવી શકાય એમ છે.

તેમણે જણાવ્યું કે, "ચાળીસ વર્ષનો મારો અનુભવ મને એમ કહેવા પ્રેરે છે કે જળ જ જળવાયુ છે અને જળવાયુ જ જળ છે."

"જો દુનિયાને ગ્લોબલ વૉર્મિંગ અને જળવાયુપ્રદૂષણથી બચાવવી હોય તો આપણે પાણીની યોગ્ય વ્યવસ્થા કરવી પડશે, હરિયાળી વધારવી પડશે અને પાણીના કારણે ઇરોઝન અને સિલ્ટિંગનો પણ સામનો કરવો પડશે; ત્યારે જ આપણી પ્રક્રિયા ઝડપી થશે."

• અનાજ, શાકભાજીની કિંમતો કાબૂમાં આવશે કે મોંઘવારી સાથે જીવવાની ટેવ પાડવી પડશે?

તો પછી, શું જળ-સંરક્ષણ માટે આપણને મોટી પરિયોજનાઓની જરૂર છે?

રાજેન્દ્રસિંહ જણાવે છે કે, "નાનાં-નાનાં વધારે કામ મળીને મોટું પરિવર્તન લાવે છે. મોટા બંધોની શરૂઆત વિસ્થાપનથી જ થાય છે. નાની પરિયોજનાઓમાં એવું નથી થતું. 11,800 નાની પરિયોજનાઓ 10,600 વર્ગ કિલોમીટરના વિસ્તારમાં પર્યાવરણને હરિયાળું કરી શકે છે, જે એક મોટો બંધ નથી કરી શકતો."

એક અંદાજ અનુસાર, 2050 સુધીમાં દુનિયાની અડધી વસ્તી એવા વિસ્તારોમાં રહેતી હશે, જ્યાં જળસંકટ હશે. એ સમયે દુનિયાનાં 36 ટકા શહેરોમાં પાણીની અછત હશે.

જળવાયુપરિવર્તન, નબળી વ્યવસ્થા, જળસ્રોતોની ઘટતી સંખ્યા અને સંગ્રહનો અભાવ - કોઈ ને કોઈ સ્તરે આ બધાં કારણો પાણીની સમસ્યા માટે જવાબદાર છે. પરંતુ જાણકારો કહે છે એમ પ્રશ્ન પાણીના ખતમ થઈ જવાનો નથી, બલકે એની સાથે માણસોનો સંબંધ પૂરો થવાનો છે.

સમસ્યાનું સમાધાન તો છે, પણ એના માટે આપણે આપણી રીતરસમો બદલવી પડશે અને એક વાર ફરી પાણીના ઉપયોગ વિશે વિચારવું પડશે, જેથી ભવિષ્યમાં દરેક વ્યક્તિ માટે, દરેક જગ્યાએ જરૂરિયાત મુજબનું પાણી ઉપલબ્ધ હોય.

નહીં તો, જેવું બેન્જામિન ફ્રૅન્કલિને કહ્યું હતું - પાણીનું મહત્ત્વ આપણે ત્યારે સમજીશું, જ્યારે કૂવા સુકાઈ જશે.

( પ્રોડ્યૂસર - માનસી દાશ )

• કોરોના વાઇરસની દવા મળી, જે બચાવી રહી છે લોકોના જીવ
• કોરોના વાઇરસનાં લક્ષણો શું છે અને કેવી રીતે બચી શકાય?
• કોરોના વાઇરસ દૂધની થેલી અને શાકભાજી પર કેટલું જીવે છે?
• કોરોના વાઇરસનો ચેપ આખરે કયા પશુમાંથી ફેલાયો?

YouTube કન્ટેન્ટ પૂર્ણ, 2

તમે અમને ફેસબુક , ઇન્સ્ટાગ્રામ , યૂટ્યૂબ અને ટ્વિટર પર ફોલો કરી શકો છો

પશ્ચિમ ઉત્તર પ્રદેશમાં બાળકોના જાતીય શોષણનો મામલો, આરોપી લાંબા સમય સુધી કેવી રીતે બચતો રહ્યો?

આઈસી 814 : કંદહાર અપહરણકાંડ પર આધારીત અનુભવ સિન્હાની નૅટફ્લિક્સ વેબસિરીઝ પર કયો વિવાદ થયો, ઇઝરાયલના વડા પ્રધાન નેતન્યાહૂએ શા માટે માગી માફી, બીજી તરફ હમાસે કઈ નવી ધમકી આપી, બીબીસી વિશેષ.

બાંગ્લાદેશમાં શેખ હસીના સરકારને હચમચાવી દેનારા વિદ્યાર્થીઓ હવે શું કરી રહ્યા છે

પાકિસ્તાનના અહમદિયા મુસલમાનો જીવ બચાવીને નેપાળ ભાગ્યાં પણ છતાં કેમ ડરી રહ્યાં છે?

'બુલડોઝર ઍક્શન' પર સુપ્રીમ કોર્ટનું કડક વલણ, યોગી આદિત્યનાથની સરકારનો શો જવાબ છે

'મને ડર છે કે મારું સંતાન ગર્ભમાં જ મૃત્યુ પામશે', તાલિબાનના શાસનમાં સગર્ભા મહિલાની કરૂણ કહાણી

હરિયાણામાં ગોમાંસ લઈ જવાની શંકાને કારણે બંગાળના એક યુવકની માર મારીને હત્યા, શું છે મામલો?

બાંગ્લાદેશમાં શેખ હસીનાના શાસનમાં વિરોધીઓને જેલમાં ગોંધીને કેવો જુલમ ગુજારવામાં આવતો હતો

ટ્રેનમાં ગોમાંસ લઈ જવાની શંકાને કારણે મુસ્લિમ વૃદ્ધ સાથે મારપીટ, શું છે સમગ્ર મામલો?

યુદ્ધની આડશે ઇઝરાયલીઓ કઈ રીતે પેલેસ્ટાઇનિયનોની જમીન પર કબજો કરી રહ્યા છે?

કૅનેડા : ટેમ્પરરી વર્ક પરમિટ અંગેનો એ નિર્ણય જે ગુજરાતીઓની મુશ્કેલી વધારી દેશે

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Environmental Analysis & Ecology Studies

Coastal Communities and Climate Change: A Case Study in Gujarat, India

Anil Kumar Roy*

CEPT University, India

*Corresponding author: Anil Kumar Roy, CEPT University, Kasturbhai Lalbhai Campus, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad, Gujarat-380009, India

Submission: January 25, 2018; Published: April 03, 2018

DOI: 10.31031/EAES.2018.02.000527

ISSN 2578-0336 Volume2 Issue1

• Introduction
• Climate Change Challenges In India
• Jamnagar City Region-Perceptions and Preparedness for Climate Change
• Climate Change Challenges to Coastal Communities: Perceived Vulnerability, Risk and Coping Mechanism

Developing countries are highly vulnerable to climate change [1,2]. They have less coping capacity to deal with its negative impacts. India is one of the most vulnerable countries in South Asia. It urgently requires adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with possible impacts arising from extreme weather events due to climate change. Indian cities, particularly the coastal ones, are at a comparatively greater risk as their population is likely to grow rapidly and may reach 500 million over the next 50 years [3]. The assessment of climate change impacts and adaptability both at the macro region and micro levels is necessary to create effective mitigation policies [4,5].

Figure 1: Location of Jamnagar city.

According to the India Disaster Knowledge Network, 12 percent of the total land mass of India is flood prone and 68 percent of the arable land is vulnerable to drought. The climate variability along India’s coast and resultant sea-level rise will eventually have a tremendous socio-economic impact on local communities and their livelihood. Risks in Indian coastal cities are associated more with intrinsic vulnerability rather than external exposure to hazards. These areas are also experiencing rapid population growth and are likely to face greater climate change challenges. The case of Jamnagar City Region of Gujarat Coast in Gulf of Kutch, India shows the extent of vulnerability, exposure and perceptive challenges of climate change both at local level and at the household of coastal communities of farmers and fishermen Figure 1 for the location of Jamnagar City.

The analysis of climate variables reveals an increasing trend in the annual mean temperature observed for a period of 40 years during 1969 and 2009 in Jamnagar City-region (Figure 2). The average yearly rainfall does not confirm to the declining trends. However, there has been a declining trend in the number of rainy days per year during the 50 years between 1955 and 2004 (Figure 3). This has resulted in the greater occurrence of droughts and floods in the region, leading to loss of life and property. Prime stakeholders of Jamnagar city face challenges such as scarcity of drinking water supply at sources, salinity ingress from the ocean, frequent flooding in the low lying areas (particularly slums) and high incidence of natural and manmade hazards. The stakeholders have these local priorities to tackle as far as urban planning is concerned, while national and state level climate change priorities are concerned with reduction of Green House Gases (GHGs) and preparation of new energy policy.

Figure 2: Annual mean temperature of Jamnagar city region- 1969-2009, Source: IMD, Pune for various years from 1969 to 2009.

Figure 3: Number of rainy days in a year, Jamnagar city region-1955 to 2004, Source: IMD, Pune for various years from 1955to 2004.

A survey of 100 households each from two coastal communities engaged in agriculture and fishing activities reveals that they are highly exposed to climate change impacts and are more sensitive towards extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, cyclones and salinity ingress. However, they have poor awareness of climate change impacts. They reported a change in their crop calendar due to the shifting nature of cropping season. This has resulted in reducing the desired yields of major crops. The fishing communities have reported decreasing tends in their fish catch throughout the year compared to a decade ago. The comparative assessment of the two communities shows that the fishing community is more vulnerable compared to agriculture community due to lack of awareness, the absence of social networks, use of low technology, lower socioeconomic status and greater dependency on coastal and marine resources for their livelihood.

Jamnagar city region, located in a coastal area, is vulnerable to climate change. The exposure and sensitivity to climate change variability of the city region have increased during the past 50 years. Climate variable in terms of rising temperature and reduction in a number of rainy days has resulted in greater exposure and sensitivity to climate change impacts. The adaptive capacity of the stakeholders is far from adequate, due to lack of awareness and general negligence regarding climate change. Community level vulnerability of those engaged in fishing and agricultural activities reveal higher exposure and sensitivity toward climate change variables, while their adaptive capacity is poor. It is evident that fishing community is comparatively more vulnerable to the climate change. The policy implications are clear. Local developmental priorities need to be considered while determining national and state level mitigation measures to mitigate climate change impacts. It works better when local communities are involved in climate change adaptation and mitigations measures. A study in Thailand shows that government policies are designed to mitigate climate change challenges faced by the farmers. However, it may take some time for the farmers to adapt to the new agriculture practices that combat climate change.

• IFRC (2005) World disasters report, Geneva, Switzerland.
• UNFCCC (2007) Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), p. 5.
• Revi A (2008) Climate change risks: an adaptation and mitigation agenda for Indian cities, Environment & Urbanization 20(1): 207-229.
• Satterthwaite D, Saleemul H, Mark P, Hannah R, Patricia LR (2007) Adapting to climate change in urban areas; the possibilities and constraints in low-and middle-income nations. Human Settlements Working Paper Series, London.
• (2006) Review of international federation of redcross and red crescent societies recovery operations, IFRC.

© 2018 Anil Kumar Roy. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and build upon your work non-commercially.

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Review and synthesis of climate change studies in the Himalayan region

• Published: 11 November 2021
• Volume 24 , pages 10471–10502, ( 2022 )

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• Vikram S. Negi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3380-7930 1 ,
• Deep C. Tiwari 1 ,
• Laxman Singh 1 ,
• Shinny Thakur 1 &
• Indra D. Bhatt 1  

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There are a few regions in the world, where climate change impacts are more intense than other regions of the world, and Himalaya is the case. The Himalaya, one of the biodiversity hotspot regions and provider of ecosystem services to billion of people all across the world. Present study reviewed and synthesized climate change studies in the Himalayan region in general and Indian Himalayan region (IHR) in particular. Analysis of the literature indicates exponentially increase in climate change studies 2005 onward in the IHR, and maximum are from Jammu and Kashmir (105) followed by Uttarakhand (100) and Himachal Pradesh (77). Among the subject types, maximum climate change impact was studied on water resources/glacier retreat (141 studies) followed by agriculture (113) and forests/biodiversity (86). Increasing temperature, frequent drought spells, erratic rainfall and declining snowfall are commonly reported indicators of climate change. For instance, temperature is reported to increase by 1.5 °C in the Himalaya than an average increase of 0.74 °C globally in last century; however, it varied in eastern (0.1 °C per decade and western Himalayas (0.09 °C per decade. An increase in temperature between 0.28 and 0.80 °C per decade was reported for North-western Himalaya and 0.20–1.00 °C per decade for Eastern Himalaya. The higher altitude of Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan zone are reported to be warming at higher rates. Many of the glaciers were reported to be retreating in both eastern and western Himalaya. Heavy rainfall is becoming very common in the region often accompanied by cloudbursts that aggravate flood situation many times. Perception-based studies of the region reported to provide firsthand and detailed descriptions of climate change indicators and impacts from rural and remote areas, where no instrumental data are available.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to Director GBP-NIHE, Kosi-Katarmal, Almora, Uttarakhand, for facilities and encouragement. Partial funding from the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India, under NMSHE—Task Force 3 (Forest Resources and Plant Biodiversity), and ICIMOD, Kathmandu, under KSLCDI-II is gratefully acknowledged.

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Negi, V.S., Tiwari, D.C., Singh, L. et al. Review and synthesis of climate change studies in the Himalayan region. Environ Dev Sustain 24 , 10471–10502 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01880-5

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Climate Change: Evidence and Causes: Update 2020 (2020)

Chapter: conclusion, c onclusion.

This document explains that there are well-understood physical mechanisms by which changes in the amounts of greenhouse gases cause climate changes. It discusses the evidence that the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have increased and are still increasing rapidly, that climate change is occurring, and that most of the recent change is almost certainly due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Further climate change is inevitable; if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, future changes will substantially exceed those that have occurred so far. There remains a range of estimates of the magnitude and regional expression of future change, but increases in the extremes of climate that can adversely affect natural ecosystems and human activities and infrastructure are expected.

Citizens and governments can choose among several options (or a mixture of those options) in response to this information: they can change their pattern of energy production and usage in order to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and hence the magnitude of climate changes; they can wait for changes to occur and accept the losses, damage, and suffering that arise; they can adapt to actual and expected changes as much as possible; or they can seek as yet unproven “geoengineering” solutions to counteract some of the climate changes that would otherwise occur. Each of these options has risks, attractions and costs, and what is actually done may be a mixture of these different options. Different nations and communities will vary in their vulnerability and their capacity to adapt. There is an important debate to be had about choices among these options, to decide what is best for each group or nation, and most importantly for the global population as a whole. The options have to be discussed at a global scale because in many cases those communities that are most vulnerable control few of the emissions, either past or future. Our description of the science of climate change, with both its facts and its uncertainties, is offered as a basis to inform that policy debate.

A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The following individuals served as the primary writing team for the 2014 and 2020 editions of this document:

• Eric Wolff FRS, (UK lead), University of Cambridge
• Inez Fung (NAS, US lead), University of California, Berkeley
• Brian Hoskins FRS, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
• John F.B. Mitchell FRS, UK Met Office
• Tim Palmer FRS, University of Oxford
• Benjamin Santer (NAS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• John Shepherd FRS, University of Southampton
• Keith Shine FRS, University of Reading.
• Susan Solomon (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
• John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
• Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois

Staff support for the 2020 revision was provided by Richard Walker, Amanda Purcell, Nancy Huddleston, and Michael Hudson. We offer special thanks to Rebecca Lindsey and NOAA Climate.gov for providing data and figure updates.

The following individuals served as reviewers of the 2014 document in accordance with procedures approved by the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences:

• Richard Alley (NAS), Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University
• Alec Broers FRS, Former President of the Royal Academy of Engineering
• Harry Elderfield FRS, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge
• Joanna Haigh FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London
• Isaac Held (NAS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
• John Kutzbach (NAS), Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin
• Jerry Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
• John Pendry FRS, Imperial College London
• John Pyle FRS, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge
• Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
• Emily Shuckburgh, British Antarctic Survey
• Gabrielle Walker, Journalist
• Andrew Watson FRS, University of East Anglia

The Support for the 2014 Edition was provided by NAS Endowment Funds. We offer sincere thanks to the Ralph J. and Carol M. Cicerone Endowment for NAS Missions for supporting the production of this 2020 Edition.

F OR FURTHER READING

For more detailed discussion of the topics addressed in this document (including references to the underlying original research), see:

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [ https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc ]
• National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), 2019: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259 ]
• Royal Society, 2018: Greenhouse gas removal [ https://raeng.org.uk/greenhousegasremoval ]
• U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), 2018: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States [ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov ]
• IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C [ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 ]
• USGCRP, 2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I: Climate Science Special Reports [ https://science2017.globalchange.gov ]
• NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852 ]
• IPCC, 2013: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group 1. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis [ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 ]
• NRC, 2013: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18373 ]
• NRC, 2011: Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12877 ]
• Royal Society 2010: Climate Change: A Summary of the Science [ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science ]
• NRC, 2010: America’s Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12782 ]

Much of the original data underlying the scientific findings discussed here are available at:

• https://data.ucar.edu/
• https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu
• https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu
• https://ess-dive.lbl.gov/
• https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
• https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
• http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu
• http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, produced the original Climate Change: Evidence and Causes in 2014. It was written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. This new edition, prepared by the same author team, has been updated with the most recent climate data and scientific analyses, all of which reinforce our understanding of human-caused climate change.

Scientific information is a vital component for society to make informed decisions about how to reduce the magnitude of climate change and how to adapt to its impacts. This booklet serves as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and others seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate-change science.

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